Carver Eviction Risk: Moderate , Richmond

Against Richmond City at 50.2%, 83% of renters here are cost-burdened. Annualized rent equals 91% of average household income of $18,333, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

What pushes it up most is economic stress at 10/10. The poverty rate is 61%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 9.8/10.

This is renter territory: 83% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.4/10. It sits 1.4 points above the Richmond City average of 4.3.

The filing record is not thin: 114 evictions over 4 years of observation. Housing insecurity runs 21.2% against 14.2% nationally.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 14.6% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. The worst year on record was 2013, when 11.5% of renter households were served.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.