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Neighborhood · Ranked #14,316 of 84,120 nationally

Melrose Eviction Risk: Moderate , Roanoke

Tract 51770002400 · Roanoke city, VA · pop 4,543 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

The Elevated-tier score of 6.6/10 for census tract 51770002400 reflects conditions in the Melrose area of Roanoke, Virginia. On the national scale it ranks #10,202 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

About 54% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 18% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,194 a month while the average household earns $54,268 a year, roughly 26% of income at the averages. About 42% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
5.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 23% Stable renters 19% Owners 58%
Tract context
Occupied units1,873
Renter share42.3%
SVI overall0.88
Poverty rate34.6%
Median income$54,268

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Melrose
Moderate
Within parent city
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#7 of 25 tracts In Roanoke
High
Within county
79 th percentile
Rank, 79th percentileLowHigh
#6 of 25 tracts In Roanoke city
High
Within state
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#85 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Roanoke and the region

Centroid at 37.2923, -79.9647 · click any tract to drill in

Why Melrose scores 5.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Roanoke
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
34.6% poverty · this tract
8.7
Supply constraint
$1,194 rent vs county FMR
5.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Roanoke
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Roanoke
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Roanoke
4.5

How Melrose compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Melrose risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.85.8This tracttract 002400Roanoke: 4.14.1Roanokeparent cityCounty: 5.05.0Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 88

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Melrose

The heaviest input here is economic stress at 8.7/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Roanoke eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Roanoke City County average of 5.8 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Part of this tract, about 8% of its area, sat in the redlined grade-D zone on 1930s HOLC maps, though its dominant grade was C ("Declining"). That lending history still correlates with present-day rent burden.

In CDC survey modeling, about 26.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 20.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51770002400

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51770002400?

Census tract 51770002400 in the Melrose neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51770002400?

Median gross rent is $1,194/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51770002400?

34.6% of residents in tract 51770002400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,543.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51770002400?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 88th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 94th, household 65th, minority 87th, housing 70th.
Q5

Is tract 51770002400 considered part of Melrose?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51770002400 fall within Melrose (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51770002400 struggle to pay rent?

About 26.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 20.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51770002400 compare to Roanoke overall?

Tract 51770002400 scores 5.8/10, higher than the parent city of Roanoke at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Roanoke eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 51770002400 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 8% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Roanoke

Top eight tracts in Roanoke ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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