Neighborhood · Ranked #26,446 of 84,120 nationally

Buena Vista Eviction Risk: Moderate , Roanoke

Tract 51770002700 · Roanoke city, VA · pop 5,086 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

With a score of 5.6/10, tract 51770002700 in the Buena Vista area of Roanoke ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 5,086 residents. On the national scale it ranks #34,520 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

About 34% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a high level, and 15% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,046 a month while the average household earns $54,906 a year, roughly 23% of income at the averages. About 53% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

4.9

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 18% Stable renters 35% Owners 47%

Tract context

Occupied units1,844

Renter share53.1%

SVI overall0.62

Poverty rate18.1%

Median income$54,906

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Roanoke and the region

Centroid at 37.2647, -79.9221 · click any tract to drill in

Why Buena Vista scores 4.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Roanoke

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.3

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

18.1% poverty · this tract

4.5

Supply constraint

$1,046 rent vs county FMR

4.2

Rent control risk

Inherited from Roanoke

1.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

4.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Roanoke

4.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Roanoke

4.5

How Buena Vista compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 62

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

81%Socioeconomic
63%Household composition
43%Racial/ethnic minority
28%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
54%Grade C
6%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

15.5%Housing insecurity
10.7%Utility-shutoff threat
20.4%Food insecurity
19.4%SNAP enrollment
10.9%Transit barriers
11.7%No health insurance
20.7%Frequent mental distress
37.1%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Buena Vista

The score leans hardest on economic stress at 4.5/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Roanoke eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Roanoke City County average of 5.8 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

Part of this tract, about 6% of its area, sat in the redlined grade-D zone on 1930s HOLC maps, though its dominant grade was C ("Declining"). That lending history still correlates with present-day rent burden.

In CDC survey modeling, about 15.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51770002700

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51770002700?

Census tract 51770002700 in the Buena Vista neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51770002700?

Median gross rent is $1,046/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51770002700?

18.1% of residents in tract 51770002700 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,086.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51770002700?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 62th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 81th, household 63th, minority 43th, housing 28th.

Is tract 51770002700 considered part of Buena Vista?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51770002700 fall within Buena Vista (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51770002700 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51770002700 compare to Roanoke overall?

Tract 51770002700 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Roanoke at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Roanoke eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 51770002700 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 6% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Roanoke

Top eight tracts in Roanoke ranked by composite eviction-risk score.