Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #22,213 of 84,120 nationally
Heritage Hills Eviction Risk: Moderate , Winchester
Tract 51840000101 · Winchester city, VA · pop 3,903 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
Census tract 51840000101 runs through the Heritage Hills area of Winchester. With 3,903 residents, it scores $1/10 for landlords. It lands near the 73rd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
27% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a moderate level, and 16% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,423 monthly, set against $71,404 in average yearly household income, roughly 24% of income at the averages. About 59% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16%
Stable renters 43%
Owners 41%
Tract context
Occupied units1,364
Renter share58.9%
SVI overall0.87
Poverty rate22.6%
Median income$71,404
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
80
th percentile
High
Within county
80
th percentile
High
Within state
92
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Winchester and the region
Centroid at 39.1852, -78.1487 · click any tract to drill in
Why Heritage Hills scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Winchester
6.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
22.6% poverty · this tract
5.6
Supply constraint
$1,423 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Winchester
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Winchester
9.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Winchester
7.2
How Heritage Hills compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 87
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 65%Socioeconomic
- 98%Household composition
- 64%Racial/ethnic minority
- 82%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 16.8%Housing insecurity
- 10.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 20.4%Food insecurity
- 16.7%SNAP enrollment
- 10.8%Transit barriers
- 15.8%No health insurance
- 18.9%Frequent mental distress
- 35.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Heritage Hills
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 9.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Winchester eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Winchester City County average of 6.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 87th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
In CDC survey modeling, about 16.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51840000101
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51840000101?
Census tract 51840000101 in the Heritage Hills neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51840000101?
Median gross rent is $1,423/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 27% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51840000101?
22.6% of residents in tract 51840000101 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,903.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51840000101?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 65th, household 98th, minority 64th, housing 82th.
Q5
Is tract 51840000101 considered part of Heritage Hills?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51840000101 fall within Heritage Hills (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51840000101 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51840000101 compare to Winchester overall?
Tract 51840000101 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Winchester at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Winchester eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Winchester
Top eight tracts in Winchester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related