Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #41,065 of 84,120 nationally
Stonewall Orchard Eviction Risk: Moderate , Winchester
Tract 51840000202 · Winchester city, VA · pop 5,598 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
Census tract 51840000202 covers the Stonewall Orchard area of Winchester, home to 5,598 residents. For landlords it grades 6.1/10, an elevated reading. That is riskier than about 76% of US census tracts.
41% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 16% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,307 a month while the average household earns $87,619 a year, roughly 18% of income at the averages. About 42% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%
Stable renters 25%
Owners 58%
Tract context
Occupied units2,598
Renter share42.2%
SVI overall0.56
Poverty rate11.0%
Median income$87,619
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
74
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Winchester and the region
Centroid at 39.1836, -78.1829 · click any tract to drill in
Why Stonewall Orchard scores 4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Winchester
6.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
11.0% poverty · this tract
2.7
Supply constraint
$1,307 rent vs county FMR
3.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Winchester
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Winchester
9.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Winchester
7.2
How Stonewall Orchard compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 56
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 48%Socioeconomic
- 47%Household composition
- 39%Racial/ethnic minority
- 71%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.9%Housing insecurity
- 5.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.9%Food insecurity
- 8.2%SNAP enrollment
- 6.0%Transit barriers
- 7.2%No health insurance
- 15.0%Frequent mental distress
- 31.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Stonewall Orchard
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 9.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Winchester eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Winchester City County average of 6.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 56th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
In CDC survey modeling, about 7.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51840000202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51840000202?
Census tract 51840000202 in the Stonewall Orchard neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51840000202?
Median gross rent is $1,307/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51840000202?
11.0% of residents in tract 51840000202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,598.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51840000202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 56th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 48th, household 47th, minority 39th, housing 71th.
Q5
Is tract 51840000202 considered part of Stonewall Orchard?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51840000202 fall within Stonewall Orchard (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51840000202 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51840000202 compare to Winchester overall?
Tract 51840000202 scores 4/10, higher than the parent city of Winchester at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Winchester eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Winchester
Top eight tracts in Winchester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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