Neighborhood · Ranked #18,163 of 84,120 nationally

Douglas Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Arlington

Tract 51013102600 · Arlington County, VA · pop 3,668 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

With a score of 6/10, tract 51013102600 in the Douglas Park area of Arlington, VA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,668. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10.

Risk score

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 29% Stable renters 42% Owners 29%

Tract context

Occupied units1,622

Renter share70.7%

SVI overall0.43

Poverty rate3.1%

Median income$106,346

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Arlington and the region

Centroid at 38.8554, -77.0937 · click any tract to drill in

Why Douglas Park scores 6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Arlington

8.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.2

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

3.1% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,045 rent vs county FMR

3.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from Arlington

4.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Arlington

7.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Arlington

6.0

How Douglas Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 43

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

49%Socioeconomic
9%Household composition
72%Racial/ethnic minority
57%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.¹

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

16Total filings over 1 yrs
2.25%Avg annual filing rate
2.3%Peak (2016)
16Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Douglas Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

9.9%Housing insecurity
5.8%Utility-shutoff threat
10.6%Food insecurity
7.2%SNAP enrollment
6.3%Transit barriers
9.2%No health insurance
13.9%Frequent mental distress
22.2%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Douglas Park

Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.5/10. 71% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Running hot, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. 10% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Court records carry 16 eviction filings across 1 observed years.

SNAP participation runs 7.2% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 10.6% against 17.8% nationally.

Average gross rent is $2,045, 12% below the Arlington average. Filings peaked in 2016 at 2.3% of renter households.

In a typical year about 2.3% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 78th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51013102600

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013102600?

Census tract 51013102600 in the Douglas Park neighborhood scores 6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51013102600?

Median gross rent is $2,045/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51013102600?

3.1% of residents in tract 51013102600 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,668.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51013102600?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 43th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 49th, household 9th, minority 72th, housing 57th.

Is tract 51013102600 considered part of Douglas Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013102600 fall within Douglas Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51013102600?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 16 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51013102600 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.25% of renter households, peaking at 2.3% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51013102600 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51013102600 compare to Arlington overall?

Tract 51013102600 scores 6/10, right in line with the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Arlington

Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Eviction Lab tract-level court records (2000-2018) and Eviction Tracking System, Princeton University. Open Data Commons Attribution license. evictionlab.org