Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #28,095 of 84,120 nationally
Douglas Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Arlington
Tract 51013102702 · Arlington County, VA · pop 1,937 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
With a score of 5.3/10, tract 51013102702 in the Douglas Park area of Arlington, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 1,937. Cost burden runs 23% here against 38.9% across Arlington County.
Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 31%
Owners 60%
Tract context
Occupied units868
Renter share40.8%
SVI overall0.33
Poverty rate0.0%
Median income$150,893
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
19
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
14
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Arlington and the region
Centroid at 38.8510, -77.0983 · click any tract to drill in
Why Douglas Park scores 5.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.0% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,213 rent vs county FMR
4.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0
How Douglas Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 33
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 43%Socioeconomic
- 8%Household composition
- 71%Racial/ethnic minority
- 38%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 23Total filings over 1 yrs
- 7.37%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.4%Peak (2016)
- 23Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Douglas Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.5%Housing insecurity
- 5.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.3%Food insecurity
- 6.0%SNAP enrollment
- 5.6%Transit barriers
- 8.6%No health insurance
- 14.3%Frequent mental distress
- 19.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Douglas Park
Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.5/10.
Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. SNAP participation runs 6.0% against 15.2% nationally. Severe burden reaches 10%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Food insecurity runs 9.3% against 17.8% nationally. Court records carry 23 eviction filings across 1 observed years. Against the Arlington County average of 5.9, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.6 points.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 7.4% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 7.4% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #28,095 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51013102702
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013102702?
Census tract 51013102702 in the Douglas Park neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51013102702?
Median gross rent is $2,213/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 23% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51013102702?
0.0% of residents in tract 51013102702 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,937.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51013102702?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 33th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 43th, household 8th, minority 71th, housing 38th.
Q5
Is tract 51013102702 considered part of Douglas Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013102702 fall within Douglas Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51013102702?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 23 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51013102702 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.37% of renter households, peaking at 7.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51013102702 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51013102702 compare to Arlington overall?
Tract 51013102702 scores 5.3/10, lower than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Arlington
Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Virginia Highlands
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lyon Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Buckingham
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Arlington Mill
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North Highland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North Highland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Douglas Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Addison Heights
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Related