Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #23,808 of 84,120 nationally

Green Valley Eviction Risk: Moderate , Arlington

Tract 51013103100 · Arlington County, VA · pop 5,713 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Census tract 51013103100 covers part of the Green Valley area of Arlington, VA, and scores 5.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,713. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1.4/10.

Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17% Stable renters 30% Owners 53%
Tract context
Occupied units2,614
Renter share47.2%
SVI overall0.32
Poverty rate5.7%
Median income$142,959

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Green Valley
Moderate
Within parent city
37 th percentile
Rank, 37th percentileLowHigh
#45 of 71 tracts In Arlington
Low
Within county
43 th percentile
Rank, 43rd percentileLowHigh
#41 of 71 tracts In Arlington County
Moderate
Within state
89 th percentile
Rank, 89th percentileLowHigh
#251 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Arlington and the region

Centroid at 38.8511, -77.0830 · click any tract to drill in

Why Green Valley scores 5.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.7% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$2,235 rent vs county FMR
4.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0

How Green Valley compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Green Valley risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.55.5This tracttract 103100Arlington: 6.06.0Arlingtonparent cityCounty: 5.95.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 32

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 151Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 11.74%Avg annual filing rate
  • 11.7%Peak (2016)
  • 151Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Green Valley

Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.5/10. Running hot, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. The severe-burden share is 17%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 151 filings here across 1 tracked years. SNAP participation runs 7.3% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 10.4% against 17.8% nationally.

Filings peaked in 2016 at 11.7% of renter households. In a typical year about 11.7% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #23,808 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.3 points hotter.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 6%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. 36% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51013103100

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013103100?

Census tract 51013103100 in the Green Valley neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51013103100?

Median gross rent is $2,235/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51013103100?

5.7% of residents in tract 51013103100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,713.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51013103100?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 32th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 22th, household 5th, minority 72th, housing 73th.
Q5

Is tract 51013103100 considered part of Green Valley?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013103100 fall within Green Valley (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51013103100?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 151 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51013103100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.74% of renter households, peaking at 11.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51013103100 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51013103100 compare to Arlington overall?

Tract 51013103100 scores 5.5/10, lower than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Arlington

Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related