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Neighborhood · Ranked #19,618 of 84,120 nationally

Long Branch Creek Eviction Risk: Moderate , Arlington

Tract 51013103800 · Arlington County, VA · pop 4,850 · neighborhood within 0.0 mi

With a score of 5.9/10, tract 51013103800 in the Long Branch Creek area of Arlington, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,850 residents. The dominant input is local political climate at 8.5/10.

Risk score
5.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 32% Stable renters 45% Owners 23%
Tract context
Occupied units2,421
Renter share76.5%
SVI overall0.11
Poverty rate6.1%
Median income$119,324

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Long Branch Creek
Moderate
Within parent city
57 th percentile
Rank, 57th percentileLowHigh
#31 of 71 tracts In Arlington
Elevated
Within county
57 th percentile
Rank, 57th percentileLowHigh
#31 of 71 tracts In Arlington County
Elevated
Within state
93 th percentile
Rank, 93rd percentileLowHigh
#147 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Arlington and the region

Centroid at 38.8464, -77.0720 · click any tract to drill in

Why Long Branch Creek scores 5.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.1% poverty · this tract
1.5
Supply constraint
$2,306 rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0

How Long Branch Creek compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Long Branch Creek risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.95.9This tracttract 103800Arlington: 6.06.0Arlingtonparent cityCounty: 5.95.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 11

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 82Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 4.46%Avg annual filing rate
  • 4.5%Peak (2016)
  • 82Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Long Branch Creek

This is renter territory: 77% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. The severe-burden share is 22%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Running cool, economic stress reads 1.5/10. On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. Court records carry 82 eviction filings across 1 observed years.

Food insecurity runs 9.5% against 17.8% nationally. SNAP participation runs 7.2% against 15.2% nationally. Filings peaked in 2016 at 4.5% of renter households.

In a typical year about 4.5% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #19,618 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.7 points hotter.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51013103800

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013103800?

Census tract 51013103800 in the Long Branch Creek neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51013103800?

Median gross rent is $2,306/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51013103800?

6.1% of residents in tract 51013103800 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,850.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51013103800?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 11th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 26th, household 2th, minority 60th, housing 26th.
Q5

Is tract 51013103800 considered part of Long Branch Creek?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013103800 fall within Long Branch Creek (neighborhood centroid within 0.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51013103800?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 82 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51013103800 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.46% of renter households, peaking at 4.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51013103800 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51013103800 compare to Arlington overall?

Tract 51013103800 scores 5.9/10, right in line with the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Arlington

Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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