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Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally

Townes of Burke Eviction Risk: Lower

Tract 51059431900 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,161 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi

Tract 51059431900 sits in the Townes of Burke eviction risk area of Burke eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.4/10. Population here is 3,161. The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 10/10.

Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 1% Stable renters 3% Owners 96%
Tract context
Occupied units1,011
Renter share3.5%
SVI overall0.03
Poverty rate1.5%
Median income$211,420

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Townes of Burke
Very Low
Within parent city
33 th percentile
Rank, 33rd percentileLowHigh
#7 of 10 tracts In Burke
Low
Within county
15 th percentile
Rank, 15th percentileLowHigh
#233 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Very Low
Within state
31 th percentile
Rank, 31st percentileLowHigh
#1,505 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Burke and the region

Centroid at 38.7975, -77.2579 · click any tract to drill in

Why Townes of Burke scores 3.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Burke
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.5% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Burke
4.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Burke
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Burke
3.6

How Townes of Burke compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Townes of Burke risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.43.4This tracttract 431900Burke: 4.04.0Burkeparent cityCounty: 4.34.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 3

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 4Total filings over 3 yrs
  • 2.27%Avg annual filing rate
  • 2.3%Peak (2011)
  • 1Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594319002011: 2 filings (2.33/100 renter HHs)2012: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2013: 1 filings (1.16/100 renter HHs)2016: 1 filings (3.33/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 50% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Townes of Burke. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Townes of Burke

The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 26% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. Average gross rent is $3,501, 21% above the Burke average.

SNAP participation runs 3.8% against 15.2% nationally. On the high side, local political climate reads 7.4/10. Housing insecurity runs 5.5% against 14.2% nationally.

Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.9 points. Court records carry 4 eviction filings across 3 observed years.

The worst year on record was 2011, when 2.3% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 2.3% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 29th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 3% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059431900

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059431900?

Census tract 51059431900 in the Townes of Burke neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059431900?

Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 26% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059431900?

1.5% of residents in tract 51059431900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,161.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059431900?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 3th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 6th, household 52th, minority 43th, housing 0th.
Q5

Is tract 51059431900 considered part of Townes of Burke?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059431900 fall within Townes of Burke (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059431900?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 4 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 51059431900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.27% of renter households, peaking at 2.3% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059431900 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059431900 compare to Burke overall?

Tract 51059431900 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Burke at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Burke eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Burke

Top eight tracts in Burke ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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