Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally
Harvest Green Cluster Eviction Risk: Moderate , Herndon
Tract 51059480802 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,737 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
With a score of 4.7/10, tract 51059480802 in the Harvest Green Cluster area of Herndon, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 18% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 31%
Owners 62%
Tract context
Occupied units1,311
Renter share38.0%
SVI overall0.19
Poverty rate12.0%
Median income$166,213
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
69
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Herndon and the region
Centroid at 38.9698, -77.3722 · click any tract to drill in
Why Harvest Green Cluster scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Herndon
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
12.0% poverty · this tract
3.0
Supply constraint
$1,934 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Herndon
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Herndon
7.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Herndon
4.3
How Harvest Green Cluster compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 19
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 5%Socioeconomic
- 56%Household composition
- 56%Racial/ethnic minority
- 25%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 71Total filings over 4 yrs
- 3.11%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.3%Peak (2012)
- 15Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Harvest Green Cluster. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.0%Housing insecurity
- 4.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.8%Food insecurity
- 4.9%SNAP enrollment
- 4.8%Transit barriers
- 6.1%No health insurance
- 11.6%Frequent mental distress
- 19.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Harvest Green Cluster
The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 7.7/10. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.7/10.
SNAP participation runs 4.9% against 15.2% nationally. Running hot, local political climate reads 7.2/10. The filing record is not thin: 71 evictions over 4 years of observation.
Average gross rent is $1,934, 14% below the Herndon average. Housing insecurity runs 7.0% against 14.2% nationally.
The worst year on record was 2012, when 4.3% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 3.1% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 55th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.7/10. Rent consumes only 14% of average household income of $166,213, an unusually wide affordability cushion.
Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059480802
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059480802?
Census tract 51059480802 in the Harvest Green Cluster neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059480802?
Median gross rent is $1,934/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 18% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059480802?
12.0% of residents in tract 51059480802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,737.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059480802?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 19th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 5th, household 56th, minority 56th, housing 25th.
Q5
Is tract 51059480802 considered part of Harvest Green Cluster?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059480802 fall within Harvest Green Cluster (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059480802?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 71 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059480802 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.11% of renter households, peaking at 4.3% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059480802 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059480802 compare to Herndon overall?
Tract 51059480802 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Herndon at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Herndon eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Herndon
Top eight tracts in Herndon ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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