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Neighborhood · Ranked #82,639 of 84,120 nationally

Discovery Square Eviction Risk: Lower , Floris

Tract 51059482502 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,512 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

Census tract 51059482502 sits in the Discovery Square neighborhood of Floris, Virginia eviction laws, and carries an eviction-risk score of 5.3/10. That is riskier than about 48% of US census tracts.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 40% of renter households, a severe level, and 12% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,659 monthly, set against $205,099 in average yearly household income, roughly 16% of income at the averages. Renters make up 7% of occupied homes.

Risk score
1.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3% Stable renters 4% Owners 93%
Tract context
Occupied units905
Renter share6.6%
SVI overall0.01
Poverty rate2.2%
Median income$205,099

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 4 tracts In Discovery Square
Elevated
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Floris
Very High
Within county
29 th percentile
Rank, 29th percentileLowHigh
#196 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Low
Within state
9 th percentile
Rank, 9th percentileLowHigh
#1,987 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Floris and the region

Centroid at 38.9122, -77.4140 · click any tract to drill in

Why Discovery Square scores 1.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Floris
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,659 rent vs county FMR
6.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Floris
5.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Floris
2.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Floris
3.8

How Discovery Square compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Discovery Square risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.11.1This tracttract 482502Floris: 3.63.6Florisparent cityCounty: 1.51.5Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 1

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 3Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 2.68%Avg annual filing rate
  • 2.7%Peak (2016)
  • 3Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594825022011: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2012: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2013: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2016: 3 filings (2.68/100 renter HHs)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Discovery Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Discovery Square

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 6.5/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Floris, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 5.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 3.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Asian and ranks around the 1st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059482502

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059482502?

Census tract 51059482502 in the Discovery Square neighborhood scores 1.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059482502?

Median gross rent is $2,659/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059482502?

2.2% of residents in tract 51059482502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,512.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059482502?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 1th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 2th, household 11th, minority 54th, housing 1th.
Q5

Is tract 51059482502 considered part of Discovery Square?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059482502 fall within Discovery Square (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059482502?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 3 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51059482502 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.68% of renter households, peaking at 2.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059482502 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059482502 compare to Floris overall?

Tract 51059482502 scores 1.1/10, lower than the parent city of Floris at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Floris; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Floris

Top eight tracts in Floris ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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