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Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Guilford Eviction Risk: Lower , Rose Hill

Tract 51059422403 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,988 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

Census tract 51059422403 covers part of the Guilford area of Rose Hill, VA, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,988 residents. The voucher gap is 46.9%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 1% Stable renters 3% Owners 96%
Tract context
Occupied units964
Renter share4.3%
SVI overall0.07
Poverty rate3.4%
Median income$226,923

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Guilford
Very Low
Within parent city
60 th percentile
Rank, 60th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 6 tracts In Rose Hill
Elevated
Within county
1 th percentile
Rank, 1st percentileLowHigh
#271 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Very Low
Within state
18 th percentile
Rank, 18th percentileLowHigh
#1,798 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Rose Hill and the region

Centroid at 38.7732, -77.1214 · click any tract to drill in

Why Guilford scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Rose Hill
2.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.4% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,400 rent vs county FMR
9.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Rose Hill
2.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Rose Hill
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Rose Hill
3.2

How Guilford compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Guilford risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.03.0This tracttract 422403Rose Hill: 3.43.4Rose Hillparent cityCounty: 4.34.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 7

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 10Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 1.97%Avg annual filing rate
  • 3.5%Peak (2016)
  • 4Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594224032011: 1 filings (0.74/100 renter HHs)2012: 3 filings (2.22/100 renter HHs)2013: 2 filings (1.48/100 renter HHs)2016: 4 filings (3.45/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 300% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Guilford. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Guilford

What pushes it up most is supply constraint at 9.7/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10. 29% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly below the Fairfax County average of 41.0%.

Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.3 points. At $3,400 a month, rents run 20% over what the rest of Rose Hill commands.

The severe-burden share is 12%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Running cool, local political climate reads 2.4/10.

SNAP participation runs 5.8% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 8.5% against 17.8% nationally. The filing record is not thin: 10 evictions over 4 years of observation.

The worst year on record was 2016, when 3.5% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 2.0% of renter households face a filing.

Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 4% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059422403

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059422403?

Census tract 51059422403 in the Guilford neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059422403?

Median gross rent is $3,400/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 29% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059422403?

3.4% of residents in tract 51059422403 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,988.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059422403?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 7th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 9th, household 24th, minority 52th, housing 6th.
Q5

Is tract 51059422403 considered part of Guilford?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059422403 fall within Guilford (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059422403?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 10 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059422403 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.97% of renter households, peaking at 3.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059422403 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059422403 compare to Rose Hill overall?

Tract 51059422403 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Rose Hill at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Rose Hill; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Rose Hill

Top eight tracts in Rose Hill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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