Within parent city
25
th percentile
Low
Census Tract · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally
Herndon Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 51059480902 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,973 · 93% of tract blocks fall in Herndon
Tract 51059480902 sits in Herndon eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.3/10. Population here is 3,973. 21% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well under the Fairfax County average of 41.0%.
Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 35%
Owners 56%
Tract context
Occupied units1,368
Renter share43.9%
SVI overall0.49
Poverty rate7.8%
Median income$161,458
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
63
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
61
th percentile
Elevated
National
47
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Herndon and the region
Centroid at 38.9604, -77.3840 · click any tract to drill in
Why Herndon scores 4.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Herndon
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.8% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
$2,290 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Herndon
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Herndon
7.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Herndon
4.3
How Herndon compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 49
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 47%Socioeconomic
- 37%Household composition
- 77%Racial/ethnic minority
- 44%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 102Total filings over 4 yrs
- 3.91%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.4%Peak (2012)
- 16Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 27% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.1%Housing insecurity
- 7.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.2%Food insecurity
- 9.8%SNAP enrollment
- 7.6%Transit barriers
- 11.5%No health insurance
- 14.3%Frequent mental distress
- 25.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Herndon
The main counterweight is economic stress at 1.9/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.7/10. The severe-burden share is 13%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.7/10. The filing record is not thin: 102 evictions over 4 years of observation.
The worst year on record was 2012, when 6.4% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 3.9% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 47th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 5.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Rent consumes only 17% of average household income of $161,458, an unusually wide affordability cushion. It tracks the Fairfax County average of 4.3 closely. Average gross rent is $2,290, close to the Herndon average.
44% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059480902
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059480902?
Census tract 51059480902 in Herndon scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059480902?
Median gross rent is $2,290/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 21% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059480902?
7.8% of residents in tract 51059480902 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,973.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059480902?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 49th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 47th, household 37th, minority 77th, housing 44th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059480902?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 102 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059480902 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.91% of renter households, peaking at 6.4% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 51059480902 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51059480902 compare to Herndon overall?
Tract 51059480902 scores 4.3/10, right in line with the parent city of Herndon at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Herndon eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Herndon
Top eight tracts in Herndon ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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