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Neighborhood · Ranked #54,273 of 84,120 nationally

Bayfield Station cluster Eviction Risk: Lower , Reston

Tract 51059482002 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,575 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Census tract 51059482002 covers part of the Bayfield Station cluster area of Reston, VA, and scores 3.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,575 residents. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10.

Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 12% Stable renters 24% Owners 64%
Tract context
Occupied units1,853
Renter share35.2%
SVI overall0.04
Poverty rate1.4%
Median income$159,205

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Bayfield Station cluster
Moderate
Within parent city
17 th percentile
Rank, 17th percentileLowHigh
#16 of 19 tracts In Reston
Very Low
Within county
42 th percentile
Rank, 42nd percentileLowHigh
#160 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Moderate
Within state
41 th percentile
Rank, 41st percentileLowHigh
#1,298 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Reston and the region

Centroid at 38.9729, -77.3455 · click any tract to drill in

Why Bayfield Station cluster scores 3.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Reston
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.4% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,344 rent vs county FMR
5.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Reston
4.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Reston
8.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Reston
3.8

How Bayfield Station cluster compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Bayfield Station cluster risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.73.7This tracttract 482002Reston: 4.34.3Restonparent cityCounty: 4.34.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 4

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 36Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 1.53%Avg annual filing rate
  • 1.9%Peak (2011)
  • 7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594820022011: 11 filings (1.85/100 renter HHs)2012: 10 filings (1.69/100 renter HHs)2013: 8 filings (1.35/100 renter HHs)2016: 7 filings (1.24/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 36% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Bayfield Station cluster

The severe-burden share is 18%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8/10. 33% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Fairfax County average of 41.0%.

SNAP participation runs 3.4% against 15.2% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.2/10. Court records carry 36 eviction filings across 4 observed years.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.4% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. The worst year on record was 2011, when 1.9% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 1.5% of renter households face a filing.

That is riskier than roughly 35% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.3/10.

Against average income of $159,205, annual rent is just 18%. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 1%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059482002

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059482002?

Census tract 51059482002 in the Bayfield Station cluster neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059482002?

Median gross rent is $2,344/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 33% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059482002?

1.4% of residents in tract 51059482002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,575.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059482002?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 4th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 2th, household 15th, minority 40th, housing 10th.
Q5

Is tract 51059482002 considered part of Bayfield Station cluster?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059482002 fall within Bayfield Station cluster (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059482002?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 36 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059482002 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.53% of renter households, peaking at 1.9% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059482002 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059482002 compare to Reston overall?

Tract 51059482002 scores 3.7/10, lower than the parent city of Reston at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Reston eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Reston

Top eight tracts in Reston ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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