Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally
Colvin's Glen Eviction Risk: Moderate , Reston
Tract 51059481900 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,132 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
With a score of 4/10, tract 51059481900 in the Colvin's Glen area of Reston, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 6,132 residents. The severe-burden share is 23%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%
Stable renters 17%
Owners 68%
Tract context
Occupied units2,343
Renter share31.8%
SVI overall0.38
Poverty rate6.2%
Median income$153,698
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
61
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
57
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
53
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Reston and the region
Centroid at 38.9600, -77.3128 · click any tract to drill in
Why Colvin's Glen scores 4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Reston
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.2% poverty · this tract
1.6
Supply constraint
$1,815 rent vs county FMR
2.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Reston
4.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Reston
8.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Reston
3.8
How Colvin's Glen compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 38
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 27%Socioeconomic
- 58%Household composition
- 59%Racial/ethnic minority
- 39%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 133Total filings over 4 yrs
- 3.27%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.3%Peak (2011)
- 28Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 36% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.7%Housing insecurity
- 4.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.5%Food insecurity
- 5.0%SNAP enrollment
- 4.7%Transit barriers
- 5.8%No health insurance
- 12.3%Frequent mental distress
- 22.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Colvin's Glen
The clearest offset is economic stress at 1.6/10. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8/10. about half of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Fairfax County average of 41.0%.
Average gross rent is $1,815, 19% below the Reston average. Food insecurity runs 7.5% against 17.8% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.2/10.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 133 filings here across 4 tracked years. Housing insecurity runs 6.7% against 14.2% nationally.
Filings peaked in 2011 at 4.3% of renter households. In a typical year about 3.3% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 42% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059481900
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059481900?
Census tract 51059481900 in the Colvin's Glen neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059481900?
Median gross rent is $1,815/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059481900?
6.2% of residents in tract 51059481900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,132.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059481900?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 38th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 27th, household 58th, minority 59th, housing 39th.
Q5
Is tract 51059481900 considered part of Colvin's Glen?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059481900 fall within Colvin's Glen (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059481900?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 133 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059481900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.27% of renter households, peaking at 4.3% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059481900 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059481900 compare to Reston overall?
Tract 51059481900 scores 4/10, lower than the parent city of Reston at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Reston eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Reston
Top eight tracts in Reston ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Deepwood
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lake Anne Village
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Sunset Hills
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Lake Anne Village
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Halley Rise
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Sunset Hills
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Sunset Hills
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Pinecrest
3.9
/ 10 · Low
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