Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #81,634 of 84,120 nationally
Pinecrest Eviction Risk: Lower , Reston
Tract 51059482301 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,189 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
For landlords sizing up the Pinecrest area of Reston, census tract 51059482301 carries a moderate eviction-risk score of 4.9/10. On the national scale it ranks #55,945 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
About 25% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a moderate level, and 21% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,145 a month while the average household earns $165,756 a year, roughly 16% of income at the averages. About 34% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
1.2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%
Stable renters 25%
Owners 67%
Tract context
Occupied units2,664
Renter share33.6%
SVI overall0.16
Poverty rate5.2%
Median income$165,756
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
56
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
46
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
12
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Reston and the region
Centroid at 38.9404, -77.3398 · click any tract to drill in
Why Pinecrest scores 1.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Reston
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.2% poverty · this tract
1.3
Supply constraint
$2,145 rent vs county FMR
4.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Reston
4.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Reston
8.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Reston
3.8
How Pinecrest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 16
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 22%Socioeconomic
- 9%Household composition
- 47%Racial/ethnic minority
- 28%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 25Total filings over 4 yrs
- 1.08%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.6%Peak (2012)
- 6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 50% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Pinecrest. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.5%Housing insecurity
- 3.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 5.6%Food insecurity
- 3.6%SNAP enrollment
- 3.9%Transit barriers
- 4.9%No health insurance
- 11.7%Frequent mental distress
- 19.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Pinecrest
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Reston eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 5.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 3.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 16th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059482301
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059482301?
Census tract 51059482301 in the Pinecrest neighborhood scores 1.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059482301?
Median gross rent is $2,145/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 25% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059482301?
5.2% of residents in tract 51059482301 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,189.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059482301?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 16th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 22th, household 9th, minority 47th, housing 28th.
Q5
Is tract 51059482301 considered part of Pinecrest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059482301 fall within Pinecrest (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059482301?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 25 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059482301 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.08% of renter households, peaking at 1.6% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059482301 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059482301 compare to Reston overall?
Tract 51059482301 scores 1.2/10, lower than the parent city of Reston at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Reston eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Reston
Top eight tracts in Reston ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Deepwood
2.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Lake Anne Village
2.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Sunset Hills
2.2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Lake Anne Village
2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Halley Rise
1.7
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Sunset Hills
1.4
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Sunset Hills
1.4
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Colvin's Glen
1.3
/ 10 · Very Low
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