Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #21,564 of 84,120 nationally
Woodley Eviction Risk: Moderate , West Falls Church
Tract 51059450602 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,522 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Census tract 51059450602 covers part of the Woodley area of West Falls Church, VA, and scores 5.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. Severe burden reaches 34%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 34%
Stable renters 26%
Owners 40%
Tract context
Occupied units1,754
Renter share59.5%
SVI overall0.66
Poverty rate16.1%
Median income$84,688
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
84
th percentile
High
Within state
91
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across West Falls Church and the region
Centroid at 38.8633, -77.1976 · click any tract to drill in
Why Woodley scores 5.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from West Falls Church
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
16.1% poverty · this tract
4.0
Supply constraint
$1,867 rent vs county FMR
3.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from West Falls Church
5.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from West Falls Church
7.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from West Falls Church
4.7
How Woodley compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 66
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 67%Socioeconomic
- 17%Household composition
- 78%Racial/ethnic minority
- 80%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 149Total filings over 4 yrs
- 4.10%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.5%Peak (2012)
- 38Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.8%Housing insecurity
- 7.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 17.4%Food insecurity
- 11.8%SNAP enrollment
- 8.7%Transit barriers
- 15.1%No health insurance
- 14.6%Frequent mental distress
- 27.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Woodley
57% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Fairfax County average of 41.0%. The score leans hardest on local political climate at 8.4/10. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.4 points.
On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.3/10. Court records carry 149 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10.
At $1,867 a month, rents run 10% under what the rest of West Falls Church commands. Filings peaked in 2012 at 5.5% of renter households.
In a typical year about 4.1% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 74% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.5 points hotter.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059450602
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059450602?
Census tract 51059450602 in the Woodley neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059450602?
Median gross rent is $1,867/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059450602?
16.1% of residents in tract 51059450602 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,522.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059450602?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 66th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 67th, household 17th, minority 78th, housing 80th.
Q5
Is tract 51059450602 considered part of Woodley?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059450602 fall within Woodley (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059450602?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 149 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059450602 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.10% of renter households, peaking at 5.5% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059450602 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059450602 compare to West Falls Church overall?
Tract 51059450602 scores 5.7/10, higher than the parent city of West Falls Church at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from West Falls Church eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in West Falls Church
Top eight tracts in West Falls Church ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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