Holmes Run Acres Eviction Risk: Lower , West Falls Church
Tract 51059450601 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,163 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
51059450601 is a census tract in the Holmes Run Acres area of West Falls Church, VA. It scores 3.7/10 for landlords. 16% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well under the Fairfax County average of 41.0%.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across West Falls Church and the region
Centroid at 38.8577, -77.2085 · click any tract to drill in
Why Holmes Run Acres scores 3.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Holmes Run Acres compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 31
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 28%Socioeconomic
- 63%Household composition
- 68%Racial/ethnic minority
- 16%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 22Total filings over 4 yrs
- 4.89%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.3%Peak (2011)
- 7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.3%Housing insecurity
- 3.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.1%Food insecurity
- 4.1%SNAP enrollment
- 4.2%Transit barriers
- 6.7%No health insurance
- 11.1%Frequent mental distress
- 21.3%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Holmes Run Acres
The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. At $2,828 a month, rents run 37% over what the rest of West Falls Church commands.
Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.4/10. The voucher gap is 22.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
SNAP participation runs 4.1% against 15.2% nationally. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.3/10.
Court records carry 22 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.6% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. The worst year on record was 2011, when 7.3% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 4.9% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #54,273 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
At 14% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Against average income of $189,537, annual rent is just 18%.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
About tract 51059450601
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059450601?
What is the average rent in tract 51059450601?
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059450601?
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059450601?
Is tract 51059450601 considered part of Holmes Run Acres?
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059450601?
What share of households in tract 51059450601 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 51059450601 compare to West Falls Church overall?
Highest-risk tracts in West Falls Church
Top eight tracts in West Falls Church ranked by composite eviction-risk score.