Neighborhood · Ranked #54,273 of 84,120 nationally
Holmes Run Acres Eviction Risk: Lower , West Falls Church
Tract 51059450601 ·
Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,163 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
51059450601 is a census tract in the Holmes Run Acres area of West Falls Church, VA. It scores 3.7/10 for landlords. 16% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well under the Fairfax County average of 41.0%.
Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%Stable renters 12%Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units1,356
Renter share13.7%
SVI overall0.31
Poverty rate2.7%
Median income$189,537
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Holmes Run Acres
Moderate
Within parent city
0th percentile
#8 of 8 tracts In West Falls Church
Very Low
Within county
39th percentile
#168 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Low
Within state
41th percentile
#1,298 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across West Falls Church and the region
Centroid at 38.8577, -77.2085 · click any tract to drill in
Why Holmes Run Acres scores 3.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from West Falls Church
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.7% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,828 rent vs county FMR
7.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from West Falls Church
5.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from West Falls Church
7.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from West Falls Church
4.7
How Holmes Run Acres compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 31
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
28%Socioeconomic
63%Household composition
68%Racial/ethnic minority
16%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
22Total filings over 4 yrs
4.89%Avg annual filing rate
7.3%Peak (2011)
7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year2011 to 2016
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
6.3%Housing insecurity
3.6%Utility-shutoff threat
7.1%Food insecurity
4.1%SNAP enrollment
4.2%Transit barriers
6.7%No health insurance
11.1%Frequent mental distress
21.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Holmes Run Acres
The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. At $2,828 a month, rents run 37% over what the rest of West Falls Church commands.
Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.4/10. The voucher gap is 22.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
SNAP participation runs 4.1% against 15.2% nationally. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.3/10.
Court records carry 22 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.6% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. The worst year on record was 2011, when 7.3% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 4.9% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #54,273 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
At 14% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Against average income of $189,537, annual rent is just 18%.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059450601
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059450601?
Census tract 51059450601 in the Holmes Run Acres neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059450601?
Median gross rent is $2,828/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 16% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059450601?
2.7% of residents in tract 51059450601 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,163.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059450601?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 31th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 28th, household 63th, minority 68th, housing 16th.
Q5
Is tract 51059450601 considered part of Holmes Run Acres?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059450601 fall within Holmes Run Acres (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059450601?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 22 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059450601 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.89% of renter households, peaking at 7.3% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059450601 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059450601 compare to West Falls Church overall?
Tract 51059450601 scores 3.7/10, lower than the parent city of West Falls Church at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from West Falls Church eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in West Falls Church
Top eight tracts in West Falls Church ranked by composite eviction-risk score.