Neighborhood · Ranked #14,316 of 84,120 nationally

Skyline Area Eviction Risk: Moderate , Harrisonburg

Tract 51660000205 · Harrisonburg city, VA · pop 5,756 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi

Census tract 51660000205 sits in Skyline Area in Harrisonburg eviction risk, Virginia eviction laws, and carries an eviction-risk score of 5.7/10. That is riskier than roughly 63% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 54% of renter households, a severe level, and 38% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,286 a month while the average household earns $62,500 a year, roughly 25% of income at the averages. Renters make up 69% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

5.8

Moderate

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 37% Stable renters 32% Owners 31%

Tract context

Occupied units2,254

Renter share68.8%

SVI overall0.49

Poverty rate33.3%

Median income$62,500

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Harrisonburg and the region

Centroid at 38.4222, -78.8518 · click any tract to drill in

Why Skyline Area scores 5.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Harrisonburg

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.6

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

33.3% poverty · this tract

8.3

Supply constraint

$1,286 rent vs county FMR

4.2

Rent control risk

Inherited from Harrisonburg

2.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

4.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Harrisonburg

5.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Harrisonburg

4.5

How Skyline Area compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 49

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

82%Socioeconomic
3%Household composition
41%Racial/ethnic minority
56%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

12.8%Housing insecurity
8.5%Utility-shutoff threat
17.6%Food insecurity
14.7%SNAP enrollment
11.3%Transit barriers
10.4%No health insurance
22.2%Frequent mental distress
32.8%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Skyline Area

The score leans hardest on economic stress at 8.3/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Harrisonburg eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Harrisonburg City County average of 5.0 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 12.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 8.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 49th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51660000205

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51660000205?

Census tract 51660000205 in the Skyline Area neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51660000205?

Median gross rent is $1,286/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51660000205?

33.3% of residents in tract 51660000205 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,756.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51660000205?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 49th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 82th, household 3th, minority 41th, housing 56th.

Is tract 51660000205 considered part of Skyline Area?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51660000205 fall within Skyline Area (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51660000205 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51660000205 compare to Harrisonburg overall?

Tract 51660000205 scores 5.8/10, higher than the parent city of Harrisonburg at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Harrisonburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Harrisonburg

Top eight tracts in Harrisonburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.