Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally
Cooktown Eviction Risk: Moderate , Sterling
Tract 51107611400 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 6,362 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
Census tract 51107611400 covers part of the Cooktown area of Sterling, VA, and scores 4.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. The clearest offset is economic stress at 2/10.
Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 87%
Tract context
Occupied units1,715
Renter share13.5%
SVI overall0.63
Poverty rate8.0%
Median income$130,712
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
60
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
76
th percentile
High
Within state
61
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Sterling and the region
Centroid at 39.0003, -77.3925 · click any tract to drill in
Why Cooktown scores 4.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Sterling
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
8.0% poverty · this tract
2.0
Supply constraint
$1,778 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Sterling
5.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Sterling
5.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Sterling
4.6
How Cooktown compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 63
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 69%Socioeconomic
- 48%Household composition
- 83%Racial/ethnic minority
- 43%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 5Total filings over 1 yrs
- 1.34%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.3%Peak (2016)
- 5Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 15.0%Housing insecurity
- 8.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 18.8%Food insecurity
- 12.5%SNAP enrollment
- 9.2%Transit barriers
- 17.6%No health insurance
- 15.7%Frequent mental distress
- 31.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Cooktown
The severe-burden share is 18%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.6/10.
At $1,778 a month, rents run 17% under what the rest of Sterling commands. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10.
The filing record is not thin: 5 evictions over 1 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2016, when 1.3% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 1.3% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 47th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 13% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
Social vulnerability reads 6.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 16% of average household income of $130,712, an unusually wide affordability cushion.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611400?
Census tract 51107611400 in the Cooktown neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611400?
Median gross rent is $1,778/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 38% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611400?
8.0% of residents in tract 51107611400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,362.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 63th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 69th, household 48th, minority 83th, housing 43th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611400 considered part of Cooktown?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611400 fall within Cooktown (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 5 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.34% of renter households, peaking at 1.3% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51107611400 struggle to pay rent?
About 15.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51107611400 compare to Sterling overall?
Tract 51107611400 scores 4.3/10, higher than the parent city of Sterling at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Sterling eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Sterling
Top eight tracts in Sterling ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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