Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #35,899 of 84,120 nationally
Elmhurst Eviction Risk: Moderate , Norfolk
Tract 51710005902 · Norfolk city, VA · pop 3,849 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
How risky is Elmhurst in Norfolk for landlords? Census tract 51710005902 scores 5.1/10, the Moderate tier. On the national scale it ranks #50,113 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
About 61% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 10% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,152 a month while the average household earns $68,140 a year, roughly 20% of income at the averages. Renters make up 40% of occupied homes.
Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 61%
Tract context
Occupied units1,439
Renter share39.6%
SVI overall0.63
Poverty rate12.3%
Median income$68,140
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
43
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
42
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
79
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Norfolk and the region
Centroid at 36.8862, -76.2277 · click any tract to drill in
Why Elmhurst scores 4.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Norfolk
6.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
12.3% poverty · this tract
3.1
Supply constraint
$1,152 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Norfolk
2.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Norfolk
5.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Norfolk
5.0
How Elmhurst compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 63
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 72%Socioeconomic
- 65%Household composition
- 78%Racial/ethnic minority
- 27%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 1%Grade C
- 49%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 888Total filings over 2 yrs
- 77.41%Avg annual filing rate
- 87.6%Peak (2011)
- 339Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.3%Housing insecurity
- 11.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 21.3%Food insecurity
- 18.8%SNAP enrollment
- 11.6%Transit barriers
- 11.5%No health insurance
- 19.1%Frequent mental distress
- 34.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Elmhurst
What moves this score most is housing court bias at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Norfolk eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Norfolk City County average of 5.1 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 17.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 11.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
This tract overlaps land the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation redlined in the 1930s, a dominant grade of D ("Hazardous") across 49% of the tract. Redlining cut off mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class blocks, and those areas still tend to carry higher rent burden and eviction filings today.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51710005902
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51710005902?
Census tract 51710005902 in the Elmhurst neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51710005902?
Median gross rent is $1,152/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51710005902?
12.3% of residents in tract 51710005902 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,849.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51710005902?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 63th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 72th, household 65th, minority 78th, housing 27th.
Q5
Is tract 51710005902 considered part of Elmhurst?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51710005902 fall within Elmhurst (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51710005902?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 888 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51710005902 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 77.41% of renter households, peaking at 87.6% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51710005902 struggle to pay rent?
About 17.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51710005902 compare to Norfolk overall?
Tract 51710005902 scores 4.3/10, right in line with the parent city of Norfolk at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Norfolk eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51710005902 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 49% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Norfolk
Top eight tracts in Norfolk ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Brambleton
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Campostella Heights
6.2
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Huntersville
6.2
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Brambleton
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Brambleton
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Huntersville
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Miller Heights
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Edgewater
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
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