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Neighborhood · Ranked #41,206 of 84,120 nationally

Oak Grove Eviction Risk: Moderate , Richmond

Tract 51760060200 · Richmond city, VA · pop 2,563 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

With a score of 4.5/10, tract 51760060200 in the Oak Grove area of Richmond, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,563. The severe-burden share is 35%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 33% Stable renters 31% Owners 36%
Tract context
Occupied units1,019
Renter share64.2%
SVI overall0.88
Poverty rate15.4%
Median income$53,206

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Oak Grove
Very Low
Within parent city
60 th percentile
Rank, 60th percentileLowHigh
#31 of 75 tracts In Richmond
Elevated
Within county
58 th percentile
Rank, 58th percentileLowHigh
#32 of 75 tracts In Richmond city
Elevated
Within state
66 th percentile
Rank, 66th percentileLowHigh
#739 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Richmond and the region

Centroid at 37.5121, -77.4401 · click any tract to drill in

Why Oak Grove scores 4.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Richmond
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
15.4% poverty · this tract
3.9
Supply constraint
$1,338 rent vs county FMR
2.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Richmond
2.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Richmond
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Richmond
5.0

How Oak Grove compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Oak Grove risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.5This tracttract 0602004.3Richmondparent city4.3Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 88

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 919Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 53.96%Avg annual filing rate
  • 67.0%Peak (2013)
  • 194Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2013 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 51760060200
Filings dropped 28% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Oak Grove. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Oak Grove

The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.8/10. On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.4/10. Food insecurity runs 33.3% against 17.8% nationally.

Housing insecurity runs 26.3% against 14.2% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.5/10.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 919 filings here across 4 tracked years. Filings peaked in 2013 at 67.0% of renter households. This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Richmond. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

In a typical year about 54.0% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 51st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. 51% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent. It tracks the Richmond City average of 4.3 closely.

Average gross rent is $1,338, close to the Richmond average.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51760060200

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51760060200?

Census tract 51760060200 in the Oak Grove neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51760060200?

Median gross rent is $1,338/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51760060200?

15.4% of residents in tract 51760060200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,563.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51760060200?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 88th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 25th, minority 91th, housing 83th.
Q5

Is tract 51760060200 considered part of Oak Grove?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51760060200 fall within Oak Grove (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51760060200?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 919 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51760060200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 53.96% of renter households, peaking at 67.0% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51760060200 struggle to pay rent?

About 26.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 19.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51760060200 compare to Richmond overall?

Tract 51760060200 scores 4.5/10, right in line with the parent city of Richmond at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Richmond eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 51760060200 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 47% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Richmond

Top eight tracts in Richmond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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