Within county
29
th percentile
Low
Census Tract · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally
Tract 51179010202 Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 51179010202 · Stafford County, VA · pop 7,307
Census tract 51179010202 covers part of Stafford County, VA, and scores 4/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 7,307. 59% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Stafford County average of 41.0%.
Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 3%
Owners 92%
Tract context
Occupied units2,344
Renter share8.2%
SVI overall0.09
Poverty rate3.2%
Median income$137,237
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within state
53
th percentile
Moderate
National
42
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Stafford County and the region
Centroid at 38.4939, -77.5400 · click any tract to drill in
Why Tract 51179010202 scores 4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
State baseline
3.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,731 rent vs county FMR
2.5
Rent control risk
State baseline
3.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
State baseline
4.0
Housing court bias
State baseline
5.0
How Tract 51179010202 compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 9
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 32%Socioeconomic
- 26%Household composition
- 42%Racial/ethnic minority
- 1%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 25Total filings over 2 yrs
- 9.70%Avg annual filing rate
- 8.9%Peak (2016)
- 14Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.9%Housing insecurity
- 6.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.2%Food insecurity
- 8.4%SNAP enrollment
- 6.6%Transit barriers
- 8.6%No health insurance
- 16.9%Frequent mental distress
- 29.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Tract 51179010202
The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10. 12% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Running cool, supply constraint reads 2.5/10. Court records carry 25 eviction filings across 2 observed years. Filings peaked in 2016 at 8.9% of renter households.
In a typical year about 9.7% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 42% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 8% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.8/10. Against average income of $137,237, annual rent is just 15%.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 3%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Stafford County average of 4.5 closely.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51179010202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010202?
Census tract 51179010202 in Stafford County scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51179010202?
Median gross rent is $1,731/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010202?
3.2% of residents in tract 51179010202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,307.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 9th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 32th, household 26th, minority 42th, housing 1th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51179010202?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 25 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51179010202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.70% of renter households, peaking at 8.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 51179010202 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
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