Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #52,479 of 84,120 nationally
Bells Hill Terrace Eviction Risk: Lower , Stafford Courthouse
Tract 51179010210 · Stafford County, VA · pop 9,816 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
With a score of 3.8/10, tract 51179010210 in the Bells Hill Terrace area of Stafford Courthouse, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 9,816. The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 9.3/10.
Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 80%
Tract context
Occupied units3,574
Renter share20.8%
SVI overall0.22
Poverty rate1.1%
Median income$170,165
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
33
th percentile
Low
Within county
13
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
45
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Stafford Courthouse and the region
Centroid at 38.4381, -77.4259 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bells Hill Terrace scores 3.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Stafford Courthouse
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,973 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Stafford Courthouse
4.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Stafford Courthouse
9.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Stafford Courthouse
3.4
How Bells Hill Terrace compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 22
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 11%Socioeconomic
- 36%Household composition
- 74%Racial/ethnic minority
- 29%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 280Total filings over 2 yrs
- 14.65%Avg annual filing rate
- 16.6%Peak (2016)
- 173Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.9%Housing insecurity
- 6.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.6%Food insecurity
- 7.5%SNAP enrollment
- 6.5%Transit barriers
- 7.2%No health insurance
- 15.9%Frequent mental distress
- 22.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bells Hill Terrace
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 9.1/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10.
around a third of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly below the Stafford County average of 41.0%. Severe burden reaches 18%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Court records carry 280 eviction filings across 2 observed years. SNAP participation runs 7.5% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 10.6% against 17.8% nationally.
Against the Stafford County average of 4.5, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.7 points. The worst year on record was 2016, when 16.6% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 14.6% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 38th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51179010210
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010210?
Census tract 51179010210 in the Bells Hill Terrace neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51179010210?
Median gross rent is $1,973/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010210?
1.1% of residents in tract 51179010210 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 9,816.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010210?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 22th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 11th, household 36th, minority 74th, housing 29th.
Q5
Is tract 51179010210 considered part of Bells Hill Terrace?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010210 fall within Bells Hill Terrace (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51179010210?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 280 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51179010210 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.65% of renter households, peaking at 16.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51179010210 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51179010210 compare to Stafford Courthouse overall?
Tract 51179010210 scores 3.8/10, lower than the parent city of Stafford Courthouse at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Stafford Courthouse; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Stafford Courthouse
Top eight tracts in Stafford Courthouse ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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