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Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Bay Island Eviction Risk: Lower , Virginia Beach

Tract 51810043004 · Virginia Beach city, VA · pop 3,479 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

51810043004 is a census tract in the Bay Island area of Virginia Beach, VA. It scores 3/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,479. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.1/10.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18% Stable renters 23% Owners 59%
Tract context
Occupied units1,698
Renter share40.6%
SVI overall0.12
Poverty rate4.6%
Median income$119,360

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Bay Island
Moderate
Within parent city
17 th percentile
Rank, 17th percentileLowHigh
#92 of 111 tracts In Virginia Beach
Very Low
Within county
16 th percentile
Rank, 16th percentileLowHigh
#94 of 111 tracts In Virginia Beach city
Very Low
Within state
18 th percentile
Rank, 18th percentileLowHigh
#1,798 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Virginia Beach and the region

Centroid at 36.9074, -76.0531 · click any tract to drill in

Why Bay Island scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Virginia Beach
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.6% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$2,108 rent vs county FMR
7.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Virginia Beach
2.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Virginia Beach
3.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Virginia Beach
4.0

How Bay Island compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Bay Island risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.0This tracttract 0430043.8Virginia Beachparent city3.9Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 12

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 72Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 12.12%Avg annual filing rate
  • 12.1%Peak (2016)
  • 72Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Bay Island

Severe burden reaches 22%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. The voucher gap is 24.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 2/10.

At $2,108 a month, rents run 23% over what the rest of Virginia Beach commands. Food insecurity runs 5.6% against 17.8% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, supply constraint reads 7.4/10.

Housing insecurity runs 5.5% against 14.2% nationally. It sits 0.9 points below the Virginia Beach City average of 3.9.

Court records carry 72 eviction filings across 1 observed years. The worst year on record was 2016, when 12.1% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 12.1% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51810043004

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51810043004?

Census tract 51810043004 in the Bay Island neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51810043004?

Median gross rent is $2,108/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51810043004?

4.6% of residents in tract 51810043004 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,479.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51810043004?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 12th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 10th, household 19th, minority 16th, housing 34th.
Q5

Is tract 51810043004 considered part of Bay Island?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51810043004 fall within Bay Island (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51810043004?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 72 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51810043004 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.12% of renter households, peaking at 12.1% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51810043004 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51810043004 compare to Virginia Beach overall?

Tract 51810043004 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Virginia Beach at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Virginia Beach eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Virginia Beach

Top eight tracts in Virginia Beach ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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