Within neighborhood
60
th percentile
Elevated
Neighborhood · Ranked #57,812 of 84,120 nationally
Dobson Shores Eviction Risk: Lower , Mesa
Tract 04013422221 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,139 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Tract 04013422221 sits in the Dobson Shores area of Mesa eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.5/10. Population here is 4,139. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22%
Stable renters 28%
Owners 50%
Tract context
Occupied units2,121
Renter share50.4%
SVI overall0.31
Poverty rate10.2%
Median income$74,279
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
57
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
53
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
52
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mesa and the region
Centroid at 33.3716, -111.8694 · click any tract to drill in
Why Dobson Shores scores 3.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
10.2% poverty · this tract
2.6
Supply constraint
$1,436 rent vs county FMR
2.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
How Dobson Shores compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 31
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 41%Socioeconomic
- 7%Household composition
- 61%Racial/ethnic minority
- 43%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,064Total filings over 5 yrs
- 40.88%Avg annual filing rate
- 63.6%Peak (2001)
- 171Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 51% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Dobson Shores. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.1%Housing insecurity
- 6.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.9%Food insecurity
- 9.5%SNAP enrollment
- 8.2%Transit barriers
- 10.9%No health insurance
- 16.4%Frequent mental distress
- 27.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Dobson Shores
On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. The severe-burden share is 17%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10.
Court records carry 1,064 eviction filings across 5 observed years. At $1,436 a month, rents run 11% under what the rest of Mesa commands. Filings peaked in 2001 at 63.6% of renter households.
In a typical year about 40.9% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 31st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Social vulnerability reads 3.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. 44% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.
It tracks the Maricopa County average of 3.7 closely.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013422221
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013422221?
Census tract 04013422221 in the Dobson Shores neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013422221?
Median gross rent is $1,436/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013422221?
10.2% of residents in tract 04013422221 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,139.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013422221?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 31th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 41th, household 7th, minority 61th, housing 43th.
Q5
Is tract 04013422221 considered part of Dobson Shores?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013422221 fall within Dobson Shores (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013422221?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,064 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013422221 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 40.88% of renter households, peaking at 63.6% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013422221 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013422221 compare to Mesa overall?
Tract 04013422221 scores 3.5/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mesa
Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422106
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Arizona Cowboy
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422107
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Royal Palm Village
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Royal Palm Village
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Arizona Cowboy
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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