Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Census Tract · Ranked #23,554 of 84,120 nationally
Mesa Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 04013421902 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 6,699
Tract 04013421902, home to 6,699 residents in Mesa in Maricopa County, scores 5.8/10 for landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 70% of US census tracts.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 50% of renter households, a severe level, and 33% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,282 a month while the average household earns $50,457 a year, roughly 30% of income at the averages. About 69% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
5.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 34%
Stable renters 35%
Owners 31%
Tract context
Occupied units1,672
Renter share69.1%
SVI overall0.98
Poverty rate37.2%
Median income$50,457
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
87
th percentile
High
Within state
82
th percentile
High
National
72
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mesa and the region
Centroid at 33.4042, -111.8141 · click any tract to drill in
Why Mesa scores 5.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
37.2% poverty · this tract
9.3
Supply constraint
$1,282 rent vs county FMR
1.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
How Mesa compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 98
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 97%Socioeconomic
- 87%Household composition
- 86%Racial/ethnic minority
- 95%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 530Total filings over 5 yrs
- 11.04%Avg annual filing rate
- 13.5%Peak (2003)
- 80Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 18% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 31.9%Housing insecurity
- 19.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 46.5%Food insecurity
- 39.5%SNAP enrollment
- 22.8%Transit barriers
- 35.9%No health insurance
- 20.5%Frequent mental distress
- 43.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Mesa
What moves this score most is economic stress at 9.3/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Mesa eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Maricopa County average of 5.1 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 98th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 530 eviction filings here over 5 tracked years, with about 11.0% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 13.5% of renter households in 2003.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013421902
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013421902?
Census tract 04013421902 in Mesa scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013421902?
Median gross rent is $1,282/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013421902?
37.2% of residents in tract 04013421902 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,699.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013421902?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 98th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 87th, minority 86th, housing 95th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013421902?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 530 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013421902 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.04% of renter households, peaking at 13.5% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 04013421902 struggle to pay rent?
About 31.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 19.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 04013421902 compare to Mesa overall?
Tract 04013421902 scores 5.1/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 2.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mesa
Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04013941300
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Fuller Ranch
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Culdesac Tempe
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422107
4.7
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.7
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
McQueen
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013421302
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422102
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
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