Within parent city
93
th percentile
Very High
Census Tract · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Mesa Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 04013421302 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 5,809
With a score of 4.6/10, tract 04013421302 in Mesa, AZ reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. The severe-burden share is 30%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 38%
Owners 38%
Tract context
Occupied units2,303
Renter share62.7%
SVI overall0.97
Poverty rate26.0%
Median income$55,305
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
77
th percentile
High
Within state
78
th percentile
High
National
53
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mesa and the region
Centroid at 33.4150, -111.8483 · click any tract to drill in
Why Mesa scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
26.0% poverty · this tract
6.5
Supply constraint
$1,322 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
How Mesa compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 97
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 83%Socioeconomic
- 93%Household composition
- 82%Racial/ethnic minority
- 99%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,523Total filings over 5 yrs
- 22.12%Avg annual filing rate
- 28.5%Peak (2004)
- 349Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 22.4%Housing insecurity
- 13.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 31.8%Food insecurity
- 25.8%SNAP enrollment
- 16.1%Transit barriers
- 23.0%No health insurance
- 19.1%Frequent mental distress
- 36.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Mesa
The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.
Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.8/10. The poverty rate is 26%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Cost burden runs 39% here against 46.0% across Maricopa County.
Adults with no health insurance runs 23.0% against 11.3% nationally. Average gross rent is $1,322, 18% below the Mesa average. The filing record is not thin: 1,523 evictions over 5 years of observation.
It sits 0.9 points above the Maricopa County average of 3.7. Housing insecurity runs 22.4% against 14.2% nationally. The worst year on record was 2004, when 28.5% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 22.1% of renter households face a filing.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013421302
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013421302?
Census tract 04013421302 in Mesa scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013421302?
Median gross rent is $1,322/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 39% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013421302?
26.0% of residents in tract 04013421302 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,809.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013421302?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 97th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 83th, household 93th, minority 82th, housing 99th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013421302?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,523 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013421302 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 22.12% of renter households, peaking at 28.5% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 04013421302 struggle to pay rent?
About 22.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 04013421302 compare to Mesa overall?
Tract 04013421302 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mesa
Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Fuller Ranch
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013421901
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013421902
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Hohokam Village
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422001
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013522802
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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