Neighborhood · Mesa, AZ

Dobson Shores Eviction Risk: Moderate

6 census tracts · pop 12,481 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.2/10 · range 3.2–4.6

Dobson Shores spans 6 census tracts of Mesa, AZ and houses 12,481 people. The Eviction Risk Score is 4.2/10, in the Moderate tier. 57% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, well clear of the Mesa rate of 32.3%.

Severe burden reaches 29%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10.

This is a renter market: 66% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Scores across the 6 constituent tracts range from 3.2 to 4.6. A 1.4-point internal spread means block-level underwriting beats area-level here.

On the softer side is tenant-organizing strength, at 2.5/10. Filings are well documented here: 3,796 across 2 observed tracts.

Well under the midpoint is housing-court posture, at 2.5/10. The poverty rate is 16%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Filing activity peaked in 2001 at 63.6% of renter households.

At $1,454 a month, rents sit 10% under what the rest of Mesa commands. The most recent observed rate, 38.1% in 2005, is well off that peak. Among the 33 mapped neighborhoods of Mesa, it ranks #4 by risk, the upper third.

For a like-for-like read, Tempe Cascade and Velda Rose Estates score within a fraction of it.

For a specific building, read the per-tract breakdown below rather than the 4.2 headline, because the internal range is too wide to average safely. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.

Risk score

4.2

Moderate

6 tracts · population-weighted

Dobson Shores vs Mesa How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

57.1% +77%

Mesa: 32.3%

Average gross rent

$1,454 -10%

Mesa: $1,620

Average HH income

$63,859 -19%

Mesa: $78,779

Poverty rate

16.3% +55%

Mesa: 10.5%

Renter share

66.2% +86%

Mesa: 35.6%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Dobson Shores and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 6 tracts span score 3.2–4.6

Why Dobson Shores scores 4.2

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts

2.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.1–5.1 across tracts

5.1

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 3.5–3.5 across tracts

3.5

Rent control risk

57% of income on rent · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts

1.0

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.0–3.0 across tracts

3.0

Tenant organizing strength

66% renter households · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts

2.5

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts

2.5

Economic stress

16.3% below poverty line · Range 2.6–5.0 across tracts

4.1

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 2.3–5.0 across tracts

2.5

Risk score comparison

Dobson Shores vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Dobson Shores?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 1.4 points from 3.2 to 4.6. Moderate variation across constituent tracts.

Tracts as heat grid

4.6 4.4 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.2

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

6 tracts in Dobson Shores

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
04013422103	4.6	5,337	64%	$1,421
04013422223	4.4	3,005	62%	$1,538
04013422221	3.5	4,139	44%	$1,436
04013422224	3.2	—	—	—
04013422225	3.2	—	—	—
04013422226	3.2	—	—	—

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 60

Pop-weighted across 6 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 65%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 37%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 66%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 61%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Dobson Shores

Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

3,796Total filings (sum)
33.33%Avg annual filing rate
63.6%Peak year (2001)
37.53%Latest filed (2005)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Dobson Shores

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

14.8%Housing insecurity
8.9%Utility shutoff threat
19.7%Food insecurity
15.0%SNAP enrollment
13.2%No health insurance
30.4%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Dobson Shores

What is the eviction-risk score for Dobson Shores?

Dobson Shores scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier) across 6 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Dobson Shores compare to Mesa overall?

Dobson Shores scores 1.0 points higher than Mesa overall (3.2/10). Renters spend 57% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $1,454 vs $1,620.

What is the average rent in Dobson Shores?

Average gross rent in Dobson Shores is $1,454/month (pop-weighted across 6 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Dobson Shores residents are renters?

66% of Dobson Shores households are renter-occupied (vs 36% in Mesa). The neighborhood has 12,481 residents.

Is Dobson Shores a high social-vulnerability area?

Dobson Shores sits in the 60th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Dobson Shores have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Dobson Shores is census tract 04013422103 (score 4.6/10). Across the 6 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3.2 to 4.6, a spread of 1.4 points.

How safe is Dobson Shores for landlords?

Dobson Shores carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.2/10). Pop-weighted across 6 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Mesa as a whole (3.2/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Dobson Shores?

Dobson Shores has 12,085 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (49.8%), Hispanic / Latino (27.8%), Other / Multiracial (14.1%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Dobson Shores

4 McQueen 4 tracts · pop 20,349 3 Knoell East 3 tracts · pop 8,032 3 Amberwood 4 tracts · pop 13,774 4 McClintock Manor 5 tracts · pop 24,876 5.4 Culdesac Tempe 5 tracts · pop 29,042 3.2 New Horizons 5 tracts · pop 21,806

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Mesa

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Dobson Shores.

4.2 Tempe Cascade 5 tracts · pop 20,599 4.3 Mesa Patios 7 tracts · pop 24,912 4.1 Fuller Ranch 5 tracts · pop 21,917 4.1 Velda Rose Estates 3 tracts · pop 11,124 4 Buckhorn 3 tracts · pop 13,120 4 McQueen 4 tracts · pop 20,349

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