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Census Tract · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally

Mesa Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 04013421901 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,431

04013421901 is a census tract in Mesa, AZ. It scores 4.6/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,431 residents. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.

Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18% Stable renters 30% Owners 52%
Tract context
Occupied units1,257
Renter share48.4%
SVI overall0.74
Poverty rate24.3%
Median income$78,644

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
99 th percentile
Rank, 99th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 133 tracts In Mesa
Very High
Within county
77 th percentile
Rank, 77th percentileLowHigh
#237 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
High
Within state
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#397 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
High
National
53 th percentile
Rank, 53rd percentileLowHigh
#39,308 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Mesa and the region

Centroid at 33.3970, -111.8142 · click any tract to drill in

Why Mesa scores 4.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
24.3% poverty · this tract
6.1
Supply constraint
$1,560 rent vs county FMR
3.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5

How Mesa compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Mesa risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.64.6This tracttract 421901Mesa: 3.23.2Mesaparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 74

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 455Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 17.87%Avg annual filing rate
  • 21.9%Peak (2005)
  • 107Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040134219012001: 57 filings (11.05/100 renter HHs)2002: 103 filings (19.96/100 renter HHs)2003: 82 filings (15.89/100 renter HHs)2004: 106 filings (20.54/100 renter HHs)2005: 107 filings (21.93/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 88% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Mesa

Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. 21% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Adults with no health insurance runs 26.2% against 11.3% nationally.

38% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Maricopa County average of 46.0%. The poverty rate is 24%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10.

Court records carry 455 eviction filings across 5 observed years. It sits 0.9 points above the Maricopa County average of 3.7.

Housing insecurity runs 21.3% against 14.2% nationally. Filings peaked in 2005 at 21.9% of renter households.

In a typical year about 17.9% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 53rd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 7.6/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013421901

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013421901?

Census tract 04013421901 in Mesa scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013421901?

Median gross rent is $1,560/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 38% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013421901?

24.3% of residents in tract 04013421901 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,431.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013421901?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 74th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 78th, household 54th, minority 73th, housing 60th.
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013421901?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 455 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013421901 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 17.87% of renter households, peaking at 21.9% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

What share of households in tract 04013421901 struggle to pay rent?

About 21.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 04013421901 compare to Mesa overall?

Tract 04013421901 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Mesa

Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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