Within neighborhood
83
th percentile
High
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Mesa Patios Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 04013421002 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 3,405 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
With a score of 4.6/10, tract 04013421002 in the Mesa Patios area of Mesa, AZ reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,405. Severe burden reaches 39%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 27%
Stable renters 25%
Owners 48%
Tract context
Occupied units1,679
Renter share51.9%
SVI overall0.92
Poverty rate17.4%
Median income$55,799
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
94
th percentile
Very High
Within county
77
th percentile
High
Within state
78
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mesa and the region
Centroid at 33.4285, -111.8284 · click any tract to drill in
Why Mesa Patios scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
17.4% poverty · this tract
4.4
Supply constraint
$1,297 rent vs county FMR
1.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
How Mesa Patios compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 92
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 80%Socioeconomic
- 95%Household composition
- 62%Racial/ethnic minority
- 89%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 868Total filings over 5 yrs
- 18.16%Avg annual filing rate
- 22.8%Peak (2002)
- 130Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 23% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Mesa Patios. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.5%Housing insecurity
- 8.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 18.5%Food insecurity
- 14.2%SNAP enrollment
- 10.0%Transit barriers
- 13.8%No health insurance
- 16.1%Frequent mental distress
- 33.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Mesa Patios
The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1.7/10.
At $1,297 a month, rents run 20% under what the rest of Mesa commands. Against Maricopa County at 46.0%, roughly one in two of renters here are cost-burdened.
Court records carry 868 eviction filings across 5 observed years. Against the Maricopa County average of 3.7, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.9 points. Filings peaked in 2002 at 22.8% of renter households.
In a typical year about 18.2% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 53rd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Social vulnerability reads 9.3/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. Annual rent works out to 28% of average household income of $55,799.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013421002
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013421002?
Census tract 04013421002 in the Mesa Patios neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013421002?
Median gross rent is $1,297/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013421002?
17.4% of residents in tract 04013421002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,405.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013421002?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 92th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 80th, household 95th, minority 62th, housing 89th.
Q5
Is tract 04013421002 considered part of Mesa Patios?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013421002 fall within Mesa Patios (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013421002?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 868 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013421002 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 18.16% of renter households, peaking at 22.8% in 2002. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013421002 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013421002 compare to Mesa overall?
Tract 04013421002 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mesa
Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Dobson Shores
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Culdesac Tempe
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Buckhorn
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Velda Rose Estates
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422106
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Arizona Cowboy
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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