Neighborhood · Mesa, AZ

Mesa Patios Eviction Risk: Moderate

7 census tracts · pop 24,912 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.3/10 · range 3.4–4.6

Mesa Patios takes in 7 census tracts of Mesa, AZ and houses 24,912 people. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 4.3/10, in the Moderate tier. 57% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, far above the Mesa rate of 32.3%.

Severe burden reaches 31%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10.

Well under the midpoint is supply constraint, at 1.4/10. At $1,234 a month, rents sit 24% under what the rest of Mesa commands. The 7 tracts inside this boundary do not behave alike. Individual scores run 3.4 to 4.6, a 1.2-point gap wide enough that the area average misleads on any specific address.

Filings are well documented here: 4,593 across 7 observed tracts. On the softer side is tenant-organizing strength, at 2.5/10.

The poverty rate is 18%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. Filing activity peaked in 2005 at 35.0% of renter households. 18.2% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt.

That places it #4 of 33 neighborhoods in Mesa.

For a specific building, read the per-tract breakdown below rather than the 4.3 headline, because the internal range is too wide to average safely. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.

Risk score

4.3

Moderate

7 tracts · population-weighted

Mesa Patios vs Mesa How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

56.8% +76%

Mesa: 32.3%

Average gross rent

$1,234 -24%

Mesa: $1,620

Average HH income

$56,398 -28%

Mesa: $78,779

Poverty rate

17.9% +70%

Mesa: 10.5%

Renter share

56.9% +60%

Mesa: 35.6%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Mesa Patios and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 7 tracts span score 3.4–4.6

Why Mesa Patios scores 4.3

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts

2.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.1–5.1 across tracts

5.1

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 3.5–3.5 across tracts

3.5

Rent control risk

57% of income on rent · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts

1.0

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.0–3.0 across tracts

3.0

Tenant organizing strength

57% renter households · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts

2.5

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts

2.5

Economic stress

17.9% below poverty line · Range 2.7–6.5 across tracts

4.5

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.0–1.7 across tracts

1.4

Risk score comparison

Mesa Patios vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Mesa Patios?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 1.2 points from 3.4 to 4.6. Moderate variation across constituent tracts.

Tracts as heat grid

4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.1 3.4

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

7 tracts in Mesa Patios

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
04013421501	4.6	4,446	51%	$1,110
04013421001	4.6	3,824	69%	$1,311
04013421002	4.6	3,405	51%	$1,297
04013421502	4.6	3,306	61%	$1,295
04013421400	4.6	2,653	60%	$1,177
04013420901	4.1	3,273	54%	$1,249
04013420902	3.4	4,005	53%	$1,217

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 90

Pop-weighted across 7 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 86%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 82%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 64%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 85%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Mesa Patios

Aggregated across 7 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

4,593Total filings (sum)
16.40%Avg annual filing rate
35.0%Peak year (2005)
22.00%Latest filed (2005)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Mesa Patios

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

17.1%Housing insecurity
10.2%Utility shutoff threat
24.0%Food insecurity
18.9%SNAP enrollment
18.5%No health insurance
35.5%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Mesa Patios

What is the eviction-risk score for Mesa Patios?

Mesa Patios scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier) across 7 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Mesa Patios compare to Mesa overall?

Mesa Patios scores 1.1 points higher than Mesa overall (3.2/10). Renters spend 57% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $1,234 vs $1,620.

What is the average rent in Mesa Patios?

Average gross rent in Mesa eviction risk Patios is $1,234/month (pop-weighted across 7 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Mesa Patios residents are renters?

57% of Mesa Patios households are renter-occupied (vs 36% in Mesa). The neighborhood has 24,912 residents.

Is Mesa Patios a high social-vulnerability area?

Mesa Patios sits in the 90th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Mesa Patios have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Mesa Patios is census tract 04013421501 (score 4.6/10). Across the 7 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3.4 to 4.6, a spread of 1.2 points.

How safe is Mesa Patios for landlords?

Mesa eviction risk Patios carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.3/10). Pop-weighted across 7 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Mesa as a whole (3.2/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Mesa Patios?

Mesa Patios has 25,149 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (51.2%), Hispanic / Latino (37.5%), Other / Multiracial (6.2%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Mesa Patios

4.2 Fuller Ranch 5 tracts · pop 21,917 3.9 Hohokam Village 3 tracts · pop 10,125 3 Woodridge Lakes 4 tracts · pop 18,992 4 McQueen 4 tracts · pop 20,349 3.1 Summer Place Village 2 tracts · pop 9,293 4.3 Tempe Cascade 5 tracts · pop 20,599

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Mesa

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Mesa Patios.

4.2 Dobson Shores 6 tracts · pop 12,481 4.2 Tempe Cascade 5 tracts · pop 20,599 4.1 Velda Rose Estates 3 tracts · pop 11,124 4.5 Arizona Cowboy 3 tracts · pop 11,270 4.1 Fuller Ranch 5 tracts · pop 21,917 4 McQueen 4 tracts · pop 20,349

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