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Census Tract · Ranked #32,735 of 84,120 nationally

Mesa Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 04013422102 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,548

Census tract 04013422102 runs through Mesa. With 4,548 residents, it scores 5.3/10 for landlords. It lands near the 51st percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

About 56% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 15% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,268 a month against an average household income of $44,118 a year, roughly 34% of income at the averages. Renters make up 31% of occupied homes.

Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17% Stable renters 14% Owners 69%
Tract context
Occupied units1,544
Renter share31.0%
SVI overall0.98
Poverty rate21.5%
Median income$44,118

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
94 th percentile
Rank, 94th percentileLowHigh
#9 of 133 tracts In Mesa
Very High
Within county
79 th percentile
Rank, 79th percentileLowHigh
#211 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
High
Within state
71 th percentile
Rank, 71st percentileLowHigh
#513 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Elevated
National
61 th percentile
Rank, 61st percentileLowHigh
#32,735 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Mesa and the region

Centroid at 33.4041, -111.8657 · click any tract to drill in

Why Mesa scores 4.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
21.5% poverty · this tract
5.4
Supply constraint
$1,268 rent vs county FMR
1.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5

How Mesa compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Mesa risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.54.5This tracttract 422102Mesa: 2.82.8Mesaparent cityCounty: 3.33.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.63.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 98

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 309Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 12.27%Avg annual filing rate
  • 20.2%Peak (2001)
  • 48Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040134221022001: 104 filings (20.16/100 renter HHs)2002: 82 filings (15.89/100 renter HHs)2003: 42 filings (8.14/100 renter HHs)2004: 33 filings (6.40/100 renter HHs)2005: 48 filings (10.74/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 54% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Mesa

The heaviest input here is economic stress at 5.4/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Mesa eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Maricopa County average of 5.1 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 309 eviction filings here over 5 tracked years, with about 12.3% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 20.2% of renter households in 2001.

In CDC survey modeling, about 18.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013422102

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013422102?

Census tract 04013422102 in Mesa scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013422102?

Median gross rent is $1,268/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013422102?

21.5% of residents in tract 04013422102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,548.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013422102?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 98th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 85th, minority 77th, housing 97th.
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013422102?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 309 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013422102 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.27% of renter households, peaking at 20.2% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

What share of households in tract 04013422102 struggle to pay rent?

About 18.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 04013422102 compare to Mesa overall?

Tract 04013422102 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 2.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Mesa

Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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