Within neighborhood
67
th percentile
Elevated
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Mesa Patios Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 04013421400 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 2,653 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
With a score of 4.6/10, tract 04013421400 in the Mesa Patios area of Mesa, AZ reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Severe burden reaches 30%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 49%
Stable renters 33%
Owners 18%
Tract context
Occupied units1,455
Renter share82.1%
SVI overall0.92
Poverty rate16.8%
Median income$44,611
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
85
th percentile
High
Within county
77
th percentile
High
Within state
78
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mesa and the region
Centroid at 33.4151, -111.8314 · click any tract to drill in
Why Mesa Patios scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
16.8% poverty · this tract
4.2
Supply constraint
$1,177 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
How Mesa Patios compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 92
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 91%Socioeconomic
- 63%Household composition
- 58%Racial/ethnic minority
- 96%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 915Total filings over 5 yrs
- 18.55%Avg annual filing rate
- 26.9%Peak (2005)
- 242Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 85% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Mesa Patios. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.6%Housing insecurity
- 8.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 19.3%Food insecurity
- 15.5%SNAP enrollment
- 10.4%Transit barriers
- 14.3%No health insurance
- 16.0%Frequent mental distress
- 34.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Mesa Patios
Against Maricopa County at 46.0%, 60% of renters here are cost-burdened. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. 82% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. At $1,177 a month, rents run 27% under what the rest of Mesa commands.
The filing record is not thin: 915 evictions over 5 years of observation. It sits 0.9 points above the Maricopa County average of 3.7. Filings peaked in 2005 at 26.9% of renter households.
In a typical year about 18.6% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 53% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013421400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013421400?
Census tract 04013421400 in the Mesa Patios neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013421400?
Median gross rent is $1,177/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013421400?
16.8% of residents in tract 04013421400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,653.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013421400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 92th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 91th, household 63th, minority 58th, housing 96th.
Q5
Is tract 04013421400 considered part of Mesa Patios?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013421400 fall within Mesa Patios (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013421400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 915 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013421400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 18.55% of renter households, peaking at 26.9% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013421400 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013421400 compare to Mesa overall?
Tract 04013421400 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mesa
Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Royal Palm Village
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Fuller Ranch
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Royal Palm Village
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Arizona Cowboy
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Fuller Ranch
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Lehi
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Fuller Ranch
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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