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Neighborhood · Ranked #29,578 of 84,120 nationally

Mesa Patios Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 04013421001 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 3,824 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Census tract 04013421001 covers the Mesa Patios area of Mesa, home to 3,824 residents. For landlords it grades 5.4/10, a moderate reading. It lands near the 55th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

About 69% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 45% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,311 a month against an average household income of $48,718 a year, roughly 32% of income at the averages. Renters make up 69% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 47% Stable renters 21% Owners 32%
Tract context
Occupied units1,808
Renter share68.7%
SVI overall0.99
Poverty rate26.0%
Median income$48,718

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 7 tracts In Mesa Patios
Very High
Within parent city
97 th percentile
Rank, 97th percentileLowHigh
#5 of 133 tracts In Mesa
Very High
Within county
82 th percentile
Rank, 82nd percentileLowHigh
#178 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
High
Within state
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#448 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Mesa and the region

Centroid at 33.4296, -111.8356 · click any tract to drill in

Why Mesa Patios scores 4.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
26.0% poverty · this tract
6.5
Supply constraint
$1,311 rent vs county FMR
1.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5

How Mesa Patios compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Mesa Patios risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.74.7This tracttract 421001Mesa: 2.82.8Mesaparent cityCounty: 3.33.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.63.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 99

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 875Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 15.76%Avg annual filing rate
  • 24.7%Peak (2005)
  • 245Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040134210012001: 138 filings (11.85/100 renter HHs)2002: 167 filings (14.34/100 renter HHs)2003: 139 filings (11.93/100 renter HHs)2004: 186 filings (15.97/100 renter HHs)2005: 245 filings (24.72/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 78% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Mesa Patios. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Mesa Patios

The heaviest input here is economic stress at 6.5/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Mesa eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Maricopa County average of 5.1 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 875 eviction filings here over 5 tracked years, with about 15.8% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 24.7% of renter households in 2005.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 99th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013421001

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013421001?

Census tract 04013421001 in the Mesa Patios neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013421001?

Median gross rent is $1,311/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 69% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013421001?

26.0% of residents in tract 04013421001 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,824.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013421001?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 99th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 92th, household 94th, minority 60th, housing 100th.
Q5

Is tract 04013421001 considered part of Mesa Patios?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013421001 fall within Mesa Patios (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013421001?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 875 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013421001 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 15.76% of renter households, peaking at 24.7% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013421001 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013421001 compare to Mesa overall?

Tract 04013421001 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 2.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Mesa

Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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