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Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Overland Trail Eviction Risk: Lower , Phoenix

Tract 04013616200 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 3,553 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Tract 04013616200 sits in the Overland Trail area of Phoenix eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3/10. It is home to 3,553 residents. Against Maricopa County at 46.0%, 28% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7% Stable renters 17% Owners 76%
Tract context
Occupied units1,367
Renter share23.5%
SVI overall0.29
Poverty rate7.7%
Median income$105,687

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Overland Trail
Moderate
Within parent city
16 th percentile
Rank, 16th percentileLowHigh
#318 of 379 tracts In Phoenix
Very Low
Within county
10 th percentile
Rank, 10th percentileLowHigh
#909 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Very Low
Within state
40 th percentile
Rank, 40th percentileLowHigh
#1,065 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Phoenix and the region

Centroid at 33.6581, -112.1604 · click any tract to drill in

Why Overland Trail scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Phoenix
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
7.7% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
$1,952 rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Phoenix
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Phoenix
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Phoenix
3.0

How Overland Trail compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Overland Trail risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.03.0This tracttract 616200Phoenix: 3.63.6Phoenixparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 29

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 80Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 11.48%Avg annual filing rate
  • 13.7%Peak (2001)
  • 14Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040136162002001: 18 filings (13.74/100 renter HHs)2002: 12 filings (9.16/100 renter HHs)2003: 18 filings (13.74/100 renter HHs)2004: 18 filings (13.74/100 renter HHs)2005: 14 filings (7.04/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 22% over the past 5 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Overland Trail

Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.

Running cool, economic stress reads 1.9/10. Average gross rent is $1,952, 23% above the Phoenix average.

The filing record is not thin: 80 evictions over 5 years of observation. The severe-burden share is 9%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Against the Maricopa County average of 3.7, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.7 points. The worst year on record was 2001, when 13.7% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 11.5% of renter households face a filing.

Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. At 23% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.6/10.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $105,687.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013616200

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013616200?

Census tract 04013616200 in the Overland Trail neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013616200?

Median gross rent is $1,952/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 28% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013616200?

7.7% of residents in tract 04013616200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,553.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013616200?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 29th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 44th, household 31th, minority 41th, housing 19th.
Q5

Is tract 04013616200 considered part of Overland Trail?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013616200 fall within Overland Trail (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013616200?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 80 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013616200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.48% of renter households, peaking at 13.7% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013616200 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013616200 compare to Phoenix overall?

Tract 04013616200 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Phoenix at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Phoenix eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Phoenix

Top eight tracts in Phoenix ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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