Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Rancho San Carlos Eviction Risk: Lower , Phoenix
Tract 04013104900 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,050 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
04013104900 is a census tract in the Rancho San Carlos area of Phoenix, AZ. It scores 3/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,050 residents. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 9%
Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units1,670
Renter share13.6%
SVI overall0.29
Poverty rate2.9%
Median income$116,188
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
14
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
34
th percentile
Low
Within state
40
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Phoenix and the region
Centroid at 33.5898, -112.0045 · click any tract to drill in
Why Rancho San Carlos scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Phoenix
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
2.9% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,813 rent vs county FMR
4.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Phoenix
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Phoenix
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Phoenix
3.0
How Rancho San Carlos compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 29
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 24%Socioeconomic
- 64%Household composition
- 35%Racial/ethnic minority
- 24%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 52Total filings over 5 yrs
- 6.13%Avg annual filing rate
- 10.6%Peak (2002)
- 9Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 5 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.1%Housing insecurity
- 4.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.3%Food insecurity
- 5.5%SNAP enrollment
- 5.2%Transit barriers
- 7.1%No health insurance
- 13.5%Frequent mental distress
- 23.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Rancho San Carlos
The severe-burden share is 26%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.
Cost burden runs 36% here against 46.0% across Maricopa County. Food insecurity runs 8.3% against 17.8% nationally.
The filing record is not thin: 52 evictions over 5 years of observation. Average gross rent is $1,813, 15% above the Phoenix average. It sits 0.7 points below the Maricopa County average of 3.7.
Inability to pay a utility bill runs 4.1% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. The worst year on record was 2002, when 10.6% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 6.1% of renter households face a filing.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013104900
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013104900?
Census tract 04013104900 in the Rancho San Carlos neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013104900?
Median gross rent is $1,813/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013104900?
2.9% of residents in tract 04013104900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,050.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013104900?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 29th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 24th, household 64th, minority 35th, housing 24th.
Q5
Is tract 04013104900 considered part of Rancho San Carlos?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013104900 fall within Rancho San Carlos (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013104900?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 52 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013104900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.13% of renter households, peaking at 10.6% in 2002. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013104900 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013104900 compare to Phoenix overall?
Tract 04013104900 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Phoenix at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Phoenix eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Phoenix
Top eight tracts in Phoenix ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04013107002
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013114401
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013116735
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
South Phoenix
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
El Camino Dr.
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Maryvale Terrace
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Garfield
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Thunderbird Valley Number Two
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Related