Census Tract · Ranked #72,539 of 84,120 nationally

Surprise Eviction Risk: Lower

Tract 04013040539 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 6,737 · 36% of tract blocks fall in Surprise

In Surprise, census tract 04013040539 scores 4.4/10 for eviction risk. That is riskier than about 21% of US census tracts.

37% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a high level, and 6% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average household income is about $87,319 a year. Renters make up 5% of occupied homes.

Risk score

2.1

Lower

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 2% Stable renters 3% Owners 95%

Tract context

Occupied units2,902

Renter share5.2%

SVI overall0.46

Poverty rate4.0%

Median income$87,319

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Surprise and the region

Centroid at 33.8643, -112.5382 · click any tract to drill in

Why Surprise scores 2.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Surprise

2.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Arizona legislature & governorship

2.2

Economic stress

4.0% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

tract rent vs county FMR

5.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Surprise

1.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Surprise

1.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Surprise

2.0

How Surprise compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 46

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

24%Socioeconomic
89%Household composition
36%Racial/ethnic minority
48%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

9.1%Housing insecurity
5.3%Utility-shutoff threat
11.8%Food insecurity
8.2%SNAP enrollment
6.7%Transit barriers
9.6%No health insurance
14.9%Frequent mental distress
29.3%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Surprise

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Surprise eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Maricopa County average of 5.1 and below the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 9.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 46th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013040539

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013040539?

Census tract 04013040539 in Surprise scores 2.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013040539?

4.0% of residents in tract 04013040539 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,737.

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013040539?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 46th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 24th, household 89th, minority 36th, housing 48th.

What share of households in tract 04013040539 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 04013040539 compare to Surprise overall?

Tract 04013040539 scores 2.1/10, lower than the parent city of Surprise at 2.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Surprise eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Surprise

Top eight tracts in Surprise ranked by composite eviction-risk score.