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Neighborhood · Ranked #58,384 of 84,120 nationally

Surprise Original Townsite Eviction Risk: Lower

Tract 04013061029 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 5,110 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi

How risky is Surprise Original Townsite in Surprise for landlords? Census tract 04013061029 scores 4.9/10, the Moderate tier. That is riskier than about 37% of US census tracts.

About 68% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 29% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,627 a month while the average household earns $72,047 a year, roughly 27% of income at the averages. Renters make up 42% of occupied homes.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 28% Stable renters 13% Owners 59%
Tract context
Occupied units1,949
Renter share41.9%
SVI overall0.62
Poverty rate11.9%
Median income$72,047

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
33 th percentile
Rank, 33rd percentileLowHigh
#3 of 4 tracts In Surprise Original Townsite
Low
Within parent city
93 th percentile
Rank, 93rd percentileLowHigh
#3 of 29 tracts In Surprise
Very High
Within county
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#510 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Moderate
Within state
39 th percentile
Rank, 39th percentileLowHigh
#1,080 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Surprise and the region

Centroid at 33.6312, -112.3507 · click any tract to drill in

Why Surprise Original Townsite scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Surprise
2.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
11.9% poverty · this tract
3.0
Supply constraint
$1,627 rent vs county FMR
3.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Surprise
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Surprise
1.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Surprise
2.0

How Surprise Original Townsite compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Surprise Original Townsite risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.03.0This tracttract 061029Surprise: 2.42.4Surpriseparent cityCounty: 3.33.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.63.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 62

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 126Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 69.96%Avg annual filing rate
  • 7.6%Peak (2005)
  • 56Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040130610292001: 7 filings (34.22/100 renter HHs)2002: 19 filings (92.89/100 renter HHs)2003: 18 filings (88.00/100 renter HHs)2004: 26 filings (127.11/100 renter HHs)2005: 56 filings (7.59/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 700% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Surprise Original Townsite. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Surprise Original Townsite

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 3.3/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Surprise eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Maricopa County average of 5.1 and in line with the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 10.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 62nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013061029

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013061029?

Census tract 04013061029 in the Surprise Original Townsite neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013061029?

Median gross rent is $1,627/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 68% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013061029?

11.9% of residents in tract 04013061029 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,110.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013061029?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 62th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 51th, household 69th, minority 49th, housing 65th.
Q5

Is tract 04013061029 considered part of Surprise Original Townsite?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013061029 fall within Surprise Original Townsite (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013061029?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 126 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013061029 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 69.96% of renter households, peaking at 7.6% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013061029 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013061029 compare to Surprise overall?

Tract 04013061029 scores 3/10, higher than the parent city of Surprise at 2.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Surprise eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Surprise

Top eight tracts in Surprise ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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