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Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Jaynes Eviction Risk: Lower , Casas Adobes

Tract 04019004610 · Pima, AZ · pop 6,993 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

04019004610 is a census tract in the Jaynes area of Casas Adobes, AZ. It scores 3/10 for landlords. Population here is 6,993. Cost burden runs 57% here against 43.8% across Pima County.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21% Stable renters 17% Owners 62%
Tract context
Occupied units2,610
Renter share38.0%
SVI overall0.77
Poverty rate8.9%
Median income$95,594

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Jaynes
Very Low
Within parent city
12 th percentile
Rank, 12th percentileLowHigh
#16 of 18 tracts In Casas Adobes
Very Low
Within county
9 th percentile
Rank, 9th percentileLowHigh
#247 of 270 tracts In Pima
Very Low
Within state
40 th percentile
Rank, 40th percentileLowHigh
#1,065 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Casas Adobes and the region

Centroid at 32.3149, -111.0236 · click any tract to drill in

Why Jaynes scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Casas Adobes
4.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
8.9% poverty · this tract
2.2
Supply constraint
$1,593 rent vs county FMR
6.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Casas Adobes
6.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Casas Adobes
7.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Casas Adobes
5.3

How Jaynes compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Jaynes risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.03.0This tracttract 004610Casas Adobes: 3.93.9Casas Adobesparent cityCounty: 3.93.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 77

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,076Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 14.07%Avg annual filing rate
  • 28.1%Peak (2005)
  • 93Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190046102004: 112 filings (25.40/100 renter HHs)2005: 153 filings (28.12/100 renter HHs)2006: 35 filings (6.43/100 renter HHs)2007: 74 filings (13.60/100 renter HHs)2008: 61 filings (11.21/100 renter HHs)2009: 121 filings (22.24/100 renter HHs)2010: 105 filings (15.81/100 renter HHs)2011: 93 filings (10.94/100 renter HHs)2012: 96 filings (11.29/100 renter HHs)2013: 78 filings (9.18/100 renter HHs)2016: 55 filings (5.41/100 renter HHs)2017: 93 filings (9.15/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 17% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Jaynes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Jaynes

The dominant input is court filing pressure at 8.4/10. 18% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Running cool, state political climate reads 2.2/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 2.2/10. The voucher gap is 16.0%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

Against the Pima County average of 3.9, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.9 points. The filing record is not thin: 1,076 evictions over 12 years of observation.

Filings peaked in 2005 at 28.1% of renter households. In a typical year about 14.1% of renter households face a filing.

That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.9/10. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

Average gross rent is $1,593, close to the Casas Adobes average. Annual rent works out to 20% of average household income of $95,594.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019004610

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004610?

Census tract 04019004610 in the Jaynes neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019004610?

Median gross rent is $1,593/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004610?

8.9% of residents in tract 04019004610 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,993.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004610?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 77th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 63th, household 66th, minority 71th, housing 85th.
Q5

Is tract 04019004610 considered part of Jaynes?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019004610 fall within Jaynes (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004610?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,076 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019004610 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.07% of renter households, peaking at 28.1% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04019004610 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04019004610 compare to Casas Adobes overall?

Tract 04019004610 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Casas Adobes at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Casas Adobes eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Casas Adobes

Top eight tracts in Casas Adobes ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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