Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
Flowing Wells Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson
Tract 04019004512 · Pima, AZ · pop 4,418 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
With a score of 5.4/10, tract 04019004512 in the Flowing Wells area of Flowing Wells, AZ reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,418. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 8.4/10.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11%
Stable renters 17%
Owners 72%
Tract context
Occupied units1,890
Renter share28.4%
SVI overall0.91
Poverty rate24.1%
Median income$54,318
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
99
th percentile
Very High
Within state
98
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.2911, -111.0106 · click any tract to drill in
Why Flowing Wells scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tucson
4.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
24.1% poverty · this tract
6.0
Supply constraint
$1,158 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
6.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
7.2
How Flowing Wells compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 91
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 95%Socioeconomic
- 93%Household composition
- 63%Racial/ethnic minority
- 60%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 710Total filings over 12 yrs
- 11.52%Avg annual filing rate
- 16.9%Peak (2006)
- 52Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 29% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Flowing Wells. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 15.8%Housing insecurity
- 11.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 22.3%Food insecurity
- 18.5%SNAP enrollment
- 12.2%Transit barriers
- 17.4%No health insurance
- 18.5%Frequent mental distress
- 40.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Flowing Wells
20% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Against the Pima County average of 3.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.5 points.
On the softer side, state political climate reads 2.2/10. The poverty rate is 24%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.5/10. Court records carry 710 eviction filings across 12 observed years. At $1,158 a month, rents run 12% over what the rest of Flowing Wells commands.
The worst year on record was 2006, when 16.9% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 11.5% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 9.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the AZ average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.6 points hotter.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019004512
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004512?
Census tract 04019004512 in the Flowing Wells neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019004512?
Median gross rent is $1,158/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004512?
24.1% of residents in tract 04019004512 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,418.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004512?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 91th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 95th, household 93th, minority 63th, housing 60th.
Q5
Is tract 04019004512 considered part of Flowing Wells?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019004512 fall within Flowing Wells (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004512?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 710 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019004512 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.52% of renter households, peaking at 16.9% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04019004512 struggle to pay rent?
About 15.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04019004512 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019004512 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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