Flowing Wells Eviction Risk: Moderate

Severe burden reaches 25%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. The clearest offset is supply constraint, at 2.2/10.

The poverty rate is 24%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Court records carry 1,367 eviction filings across its 2 observed tracts.

Well under the midpoint is rent-regulation exposure, at 2.9/10. At $985 a month, rents sit 14% under what the rest of Tucson commands.

19.2% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt. Filing activity peaked in 2012 at 16.9% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 9.2% in 2017, is well off that peak.

Among the 32 mapped neighborhoods of Tucson, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third. Social vulnerability runs high at 9.4/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Its 4 tracts score within 0.2 points of one another, so the area figure travels well to individual addresses.

With little internal variation, 5.3/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.