Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Flowing Wells Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson
Tract 04019004505 ·
Pima, AZ · pop 3,751 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
With a score of 5.2/10, tract 04019004505 in the Flowing Wells area of Tucson, AZ reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. The clearest offset is supply constraint at 1.1/10.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 12%Stable renters 15%Owners 73%
Tract context
Occupied units1,724
Renter share27.3%
SVI overall0.97
Poverty rate24.6%
Median income$37,474
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
67th percentile
#2 of 4 tracts In Flowing Wells
Elevated
Within parent city
94th percentile
#9 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Very High
Within county
80th percentile
#54 of 270 tracts In Pima
High
Within state
96th percentile
#72 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.2712, -110.9919 · click any tract to drill in
Why Flowing Wells scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
24.6% poverty · this tract
6.2
Supply constraint
$833 rent vs county FMR
1.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Flowing Wells compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 97
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
85%Socioeconomic
96%Household composition
62%Racial/ethnic minority
97%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
657Total filings over 12 yrs
9.50%Avg annual filing rate
13.2%Peak (2012)
58Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year2004 to 2017
Filings climbed 21% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Flowing Wells. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
16.0%Housing insecurity
11.6%Utility-shutoff threat
23.1%Food insecurity
19.4%SNAP enrollment
12.4%Transit barriers
17.9%No health insurance
17.8%Frequent mental distress
42.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Flowing Wells
25% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. At $833 a month, rents run 27% under what the rest of Tucson commands.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. The poverty rate is 25%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Against the Pima County average of 3.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points.
Court records carry 657 eviction filings across 12 observed years. The worst year on record was 2012, when 13.2% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 9.5% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #29,336 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.7/10.
Statewide the AZ average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019004505
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004505?
Census tract 04019004505 in the Flowing Wells neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019004505?
Median gross rent is $833/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004505?
24.6% of residents in tract 04019004505 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,751.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004505?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 97th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 85th, household 96th, minority 62th, housing 97th.
Q5
Is tract 04019004505 considered part of Flowing Wells?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019004505 fall within Flowing Wells (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004505?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 657 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019004505 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.50% of renter households, peaking at 13.2% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04019004505 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04019004505 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019004505 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.