Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Flowing Wells Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson
Tract 04019004515 · Pima, AZ · pop 3,476 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
04019004515 is a census tract in the Flowing Wells area of Tucson, AZ. It scores 5.2/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,476. 29% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%
Stable renters 28%
Owners 57%
Tract context
Occupied units1,423
Renter share42.9%
SVI overall0.90
Poverty rate22.6%
Median income$52,743
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
99
th percentile
Very High
Within county
89
th percentile
High
Within state
96
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.2577, -111.0022 · click any tract to drill in
Why Flowing Wells scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
22.6% poverty · this tract
5.6
Supply constraint
$983 rent vs county FMR
2.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Flowing Wells compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 90
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 81%Socioeconomic
- 77%Household composition
- 86%Racial/ethnic minority
- 90%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Flowing Wells. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.7%Housing insecurity
- 12.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 24.1%Food insecurity
- 18.8%SNAP enrollment
- 13.1%Transit barriers
- 19.3%No health insurance
- 18.2%Frequent mental distress
- 37.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Flowing Wells
Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.
Against Pima County at 43.8%, 36% of renters here are cost-burdened. It sits 1.3 points above the Pima County average of 3.9.
The poverty rate is 23%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Running cool, state political climate reads 2.2/10. Adults with no health insurance runs 19.3% against 11.3% nationally.
Average gross rent is $983, 14% below the Tucson average. Nationally it ranks #29,336 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 9.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Statewide the AZ average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $52,743.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019004515
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004515?
Census tract 04019004515 in the Flowing Wells neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019004515?
Median gross rent is $983/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004515?
22.6% of residents in tract 04019004515 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,476.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004515?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 90th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 81th, household 77th, minority 86th, housing 90th.
Q5
Is tract 04019004515 considered part of Flowing Wells?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019004515 fall within Flowing Wells (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 04019004515 struggle to pay rent?
About 17.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 04019004515 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019004515 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04019002504
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Barrio Blue Moon
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019003505
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Miracle Manor
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019003506
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Keeling
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Palo Verde Park
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
El Cortez
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
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