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Neighborhood · Ranked #8,912 of 84,120 nationally

Amphitheater Eviction Risk: Elevated , Tucson

Tract 04019002602 · Pima, AZ · pop 5,089 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

With a score of 6.1/10, tract 04019002602 in the Amphitheater area of Tucson ranks in the Elevated tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 5,089 residents. That is riskier than about 79% of US census tracts.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 64% of renter households, a severe level, and 23% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $874 a month while the average household earns $31,654 a year, roughly 33% of income at the averages. Renters make up 73% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
6.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 46% Stable renters 26% Owners 28%
Tract context
Occupied units2,845
Renter share72.7%
SVI overall0.97
Poverty rate29.7%
Median income$31,654

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 4 tracts In Amphitheater
Very High
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Very High
Within county
97 th percentile
Rank, 97th percentileLowHigh
#8 of 270 tracts In Pima
Very High
Within state
98 th percentile
Rank, 98th percentileLowHigh
#37 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.2692, -110.9582 · click any tract to drill in

Why Amphitheater scores 6.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
29.7% poverty · this tract
7.4
Supply constraint
$874 rent vs county FMR
1.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How Amphitheater compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Amphitheater risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.36.3This tracttract 002602Tucson: 3.23.2Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.83.8Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.63.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 97

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 2,149Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 10.54%Avg annual filing rate
  • 14.3%Peak (2013)
  • 238Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190026022004: 176 filings (9.71/100 renter HHs)2005: 139 filings (8.39/100 renter HHs)2006: 169 filings (10.21/100 renter HHs)2007: 157 filings (9.48/100 renter HHs)2008: 165 filings (9.96/100 renter HHs)2009: 130 filings (7.85/100 renter HHs)2010: 143 filings (7.82/100 renter HHs)2011: 171 filings (10.01/100 renter HHs)2012: 235 filings (13.76/100 renter HHs)2013: 245 filings (14.34/100 renter HHs)2016: 181 filings (10.76/100 renter HHs)2017: 238 filings (14.15/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 35% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Amphitheater. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Amphitheater

The heaviest input here is economic stress at 7.4/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Tucson eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Pima County average of 5.5 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 97th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 2,149 eviction filings here over 12 tracked years, with about 10.5% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 14.3% of renter households in 2013.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019002602

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019002602?

Census tract 04019002602 in the Amphitheater neighborhood scores 6.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019002602?

Median gross rent is $874/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019002602?

29.7% of residents in tract 04019002602 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,089.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019002602?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 97th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 95th, household 79th, minority 74th, housing 98th.
Q5

Is tract 04019002602 considered part of Amphitheater?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019002602 fall within Amphitheater (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019002602?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,149 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019002602 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.54% of renter households, peaking at 14.3% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04019002602 struggle to pay rent?

About 17.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04019002602 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019002602 scores 6.3/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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