Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #15,522 of 84,120 nationally

Poet's Square Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson

Tract 04019003102 · Pima, AZ · pop 3,783 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi

With a score of 5.8/10, tract 04019003102 in the Poet's Square neighborhood of Tucson ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 3,783 residents. That is riskier than about 70% of US census tracts.

48% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 27% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $792 monthly, set against $37,629 in average yearly household income, roughly 25% of income at the averages. About 61% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 29% Stable renters 32% Owners 39%
Tract context
Occupied units1,896
Renter share60.8%
SVI overall0.81
Poverty rate23.7%
Median income$37,629

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 5 tracts In Poet's Square
Very High
Within parent city
79 th percentile
Rank, 79th percentileLowHigh
#31 of 143 tracts In Tucson
High
Within county
87 th percentile
Rank, 87th percentileLowHigh
#36 of 270 tracts In Pima
High
Within state
91 th percentile
Rank, 91st percentileLowHigh
#164 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.2373, -110.8829 · click any tract to drill in

Why Poet's Square scores 5.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
23.7% poverty · this tract
5.9
Supply constraint
$792 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How Poet's Square compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Poet's Square risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.75.7This tracttract 003102Tucson: 3.23.2Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.83.8Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.63.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 81

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,035Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 9.88%Avg annual filing rate
  • 17.2%Peak (2006)
  • 77Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190031022004: 82 filings (8.43/100 renter HHs)2005: 102 filings (14.37/100 renter HHs)2006: 122 filings (17.18/100 renter HHs)2007: 99 filings (13.94/100 renter HHs)2008: 87 filings (12.25/100 renter HHs)2009: 66 filings (9.30/100 renter HHs)2010: 54 filings (4.65/100 renter HHs)2011: 81 filings (7.38/100 renter HHs)2012: 91 filings (8.29/100 renter HHs)2013: 91 filings (8.29/100 renter HHs)2016: 83 filings (7.53/100 renter HHs)2017: 77 filings (6.99/100 renter HHs)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Poet's Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Poet's Square

The heaviest input here is economic stress at 5.9/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Tucson eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Pima County average of 5.5 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 81st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 1,035 eviction filings here over 12 tracked years, with about 9.9% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 17.2% of renter households in 2006.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019003102

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019003102?

Census tract 04019003102 in the Poet's Square neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019003102?

Median gross rent is $792/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019003102?

23.7% of residents in tract 04019003102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,783.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019003102?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 81th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 69th, household 77th, minority 67th, housing 85th.
Q5

Is tract 04019003102 considered part of Poet's Square?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019003102 fall within Poet's Square (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019003102?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,035 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019003102 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.88% of renter households, peaking at 17.2% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04019003102 struggle to pay rent?

About 13.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04019003102 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019003102 scores 5.7/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related