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Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally

Barrio Histórico District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson

Tract 04019000100 · Pima, AZ · pop 903 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

With a score of 5.2/10, tract 04019000100 in the Barrio Histórico District area of Tucson, AZ reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. 62% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Pima County average of 43.8%.

Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 60% Stable renters 38% Owners 2%
Tract context
Occupied units837
Renter share98.0%
SVI overall0.82
Poverty rate40.9%
Median income$28,832

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Barrio Histórico District
Moderate
Within parent city
66 th percentile
Rank, 66th percentileLowHigh
#50 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Elevated
Within county
87 th percentile
Rank, 87th percentileLowHigh
#36 of 270 tracts In Pima
High
Within state
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#72 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.2209, -110.9710 · click any tract to drill in

Why Barrio Histórico District scores 5.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
40.9% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$1,138 rent vs county FMR
3.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How Barrio Histórico District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Barrio Histórico District risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.25.2This tracttract 000100Tucson: 3.83.8Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.93.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 82

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 201Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 4.44%Avg annual filing rate
  • 6.0%Peak (2017)
  • 35Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190001002004: 7 filings (1.79/100 renter HHs)2005: 26 filings (8.44/100 renter HHs)2006: 16 filings (5.19/100 renter HHs)2007: 12 filings (3.90/100 renter HHs)2008: 11 filings (3.57/100 renter HHs)2009: 19 filings (6.17/100 renter HHs)2010: 17 filings (4.90/100 renter HHs)2011: 15 filings (3.69/100 renter HHs)2012: 18 filings (4.42/100 renter HHs)2013: 12 filings (2.95/100 renter HHs)2016: 13 filings (2.24/100 renter HHs)2017: 35 filings (6.03/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 400% over the past 12 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Barrio Histórico District

37% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. What pushes it up most is economic stress at 10/10.

Annualized rent equals 47% of average household income of $28,832, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. This is renter territory: 98% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

The poverty rate is 41%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.

On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. It sits 1.3 points above the Pima County average of 3.9. The filing record is not thin: 201 evictions over 12 years of observation.

Filings peaked in 2017 at 6.0% of renter households. In a typical year about 4.4% of renter households face a filing.

Nationally it ranks #29,336 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 8.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019000100

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019000100?

Census tract 04019000100 in the Barrio Histórico District neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019000100?

Median gross rent is $1,138/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019000100?

40.9% of residents in tract 04019000100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 903.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019000100?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 82th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 76th, household 50th, minority 62th, housing 92th.
Q5

Is tract 04019000100 considered part of Barrio Histórico District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019000100 fall within Barrio Histórico District (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019000100?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 201 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019000100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.44% of renter households, peaking at 6.0% in 2017. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04019000100 struggle to pay rent?

About 13.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04019000100 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019000100 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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