Within parent city
63
th percentile
Elevated
Census Tract · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Tucson Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 04019004407 · Pima, AZ · pop 6,270
Tract 04019004407 sits in Tucson eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.2/10. It is home to 6,270 residents. 71% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Pima County average of 43.8%.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 35%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 50%
Tract context
Occupied units2,349
Renter share50.1%
SVI overall0.94
Poverty rate23.2%
Median income$46,080
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
82
th percentile
High
Within state
96
th percentile
Very High
National
65
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.1941, -111.0053 · click any tract to drill in
Why Tucson scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
23.2% poverty · this tract
5.8
Supply constraint
$929 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Tucson compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 94
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 91%Socioeconomic
- 85%Household composition
- 94%Racial/ethnic minority
- 83%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 3,852Total filings over 12 yrs
- 33.44%Avg annual filing rate
- 41.0%Peak (2011)
- 150Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 40% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 22.0%Housing insecurity
- 14.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 29.9%Food insecurity
- 22.6%SNAP enrollment
- 15.7%Transit barriers
- 24.5%No health insurance
- 19.4%Frequent mental distress
- 40.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Tucson
The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. The severe-burden share is 22%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.8/10. Adults with no health insurance runs 24.5% against 11.3% nationally.
The poverty rate is 23%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. It sits 1.3 points above the Pima County average of 3.9. At $929 a month, rents run 19% under what the rest of Tucson commands.
The filing record is not thin: 3,852 evictions over 12 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2011 at 41.0% of renter households. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 14.2% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
In a typical year about 33.4% of renter households face a filing.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019004407
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004407?
Census tract 04019004407 in Tucson scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019004407?
Median gross rent is $929/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 71% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004407?
23.2% of residents in tract 04019004407 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,270.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004407?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 94th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 91th, household 85th, minority 94th, housing 83th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004407?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 3,852 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019004407 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 33.44% of renter households, peaking at 41.0% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 04019004407 struggle to pay rent?
About 22.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 04019004407 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019004407 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04019004117
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Rincon Heights
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Palo Verde Park
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019003901
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019002801
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019002201
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Palo Verde
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Broadway Northeast
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
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