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Neighborhood · Ranked #8,912 of 84,120 nationally

El Cortez Eviction Risk: Elevated , Tucson

Tract 04019001400 · Pima, AZ · pop 6,387 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Landlord eviction risk in census tract 04019001400 (the El Cortez neighborhood of Tucson, Arizona) comes in at 6.5/10, the Elevated tier. That is riskier than roughly 88% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

About 55% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 36% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,049 a month while the average household earns $36,040 a year, roughly 35% of income at the averages. About 80% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
6.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 44% Stable renters 36% Owners 20%
Tract context
Occupied units3,338
Renter share80.0%
SVI overall0.84
Poverty rate43.4%
Median income$36,040

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In El Cortez
Moderate
Within parent city
95 th percentile
Rank, 95th percentileLowHigh
#8 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Very High
Within county
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 270 tracts In Pima
Very High
Within state
98 th percentile
Rank, 98th percentileLowHigh
#37 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.2467, -110.9620 · click any tract to drill in

Why El Cortez scores 6.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
43.4% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$1,049 rent vs county FMR
2.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How El Cortez compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
El Cortez risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.36.3This tracttract 001400Tucson: 3.23.2Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.83.8Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.63.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 84

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 998Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 5.38%Avg annual filing rate
  • 10.4%Peak (2006)
  • 58Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190014002004: 87 filings (5.64/100 renter HHs)2005: 111 filings (8.03/100 renter HHs)2006: 144 filings (10.42/100 renter HHs)2007: 111 filings (8.03/100 renter HHs)2008: 78 filings (5.64/100 renter HHs)2009: 72 filings (5.21/100 renter HHs)2010: 67 filings (3.57/100 renter HHs)2011: 62 filings (3.55/100 renter HHs)2012: 64 filings (3.66/100 renter HHs)2013: 85 filings (4.87/100 renter HHs)2016: 59 filings (3.01/100 renter HHs)2017: 58 filings (2.96/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 33% over the past 12 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in El Cortez

What moves this score most is economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Tucson eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Pima County average of 5.5 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 84th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 15.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 12.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019001400

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019001400?

Census tract 04019001400 in the El Cortez neighborhood scores 6.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019001400?

Median gross rent is $1,049/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019001400?

43.4% of residents in tract 04019001400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,387.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019001400?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 84th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 85th, household 13th, minority 69th, housing 99th.
Q5

Is tract 04019001400 considered part of El Cortez?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019001400 fall within El Cortez (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019001400?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 998 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019001400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.38% of renter households, peaking at 10.4% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04019001400 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04019001400 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019001400 scores 6.3/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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